De Gezondheidsdienst voor Dieren (GD) heeft in de afgelopen jaren een analyse van leverbotbesmettingen uitgevoerd. Dit onderzoek heeft laten zien dat verschillende omgevingsfactoren een rol spelen zoals grondwaterstand, neerslag, temperatuur en bodemtype. Daarnaast is op basis van landsdekkende bodemvochtschattingen door FutureWater vastgesteld dat ook bodemvocht en leverbotbesmettingen gecorreleerd zijn, wat verklaard wordt doordat de leverbotslak in vochtige omstandigheden het beste gedijt. De GD geeft jaarlijks een leverbotprognose uit op basis van modelresultaten. Op basis van de eerdere onderzoeksresultaten heeft de GD sinds enkele jaren ook voorspellingen van bodemvocht in haar model opgenomen, welke jaarlijks door FutureWater worden geleverd voor elk postcodegebied in Nederland.

In het huidige project wordt een ontwikkelingsslag toegepast door het gebruik van de meest recent beschikbare datasets in het hydrologische model SPHY, om zo historische bodemvochtdata te leveren met een 100 x 100 m (1 ha) resolutie voor de periode van 2012 t/m 2021. Deze gegevens worden door de Gezondheidsdienst voor Dieren gebruikt om meer inzicht te verkrijgen in het risico op diergezondheidsproblemen die door klimaat worden beïnvloed.

The new project, with the name “Consultancy Services for Integrated Strategic Water Resources Planning and Management for Rwanda” has the general objective to develop integrated strategic water resources plans and management guidelines in order to meet Rwanda’s National Strategy for Transformation (NST1) and Vision 2050 targets. Specifically, the assignment will:

  1. Assess and evaluate the availability and vulnerability of the country’s water resources up to around 2050 taking climate change into consideration,
  2. Formulate sustainable and environmentally friendly water resources investment plans towards the year 2050 and guidelines for green development for each 20 Level two catchments,
  3. Prepare a revised water resources policy that is in line with water security and SDG 6,
  4. Carry out a cost benefit analysis of the proposed investment plans and prepare quick win projects

In order to meet this objective five tasks have been defined. The main activities of those Tasks are:

  • Task 1 (detailed hydrological assessment) will result in the water availability per sub-catchment up to 2050. This task is technically oriented and will use available data and models as developed over the last decade by various studies.
  • Task 2 (detailed water allocation assessment) will address water needs for the various users and will result in water needs up to 2050. This task is technically oriented and will use available data and models as developed over the last decade. It is expected that this component will need major upgrades compared to previous studies.
  • Task 3 (strategic water resources conservation and development) will rely on Task 1 and Task 2 and can be considered as the scenario analysis task. Based on various projections water availability and demands will be evaluated. Focus will be on dry years and dry periods as it is known that the overall water resources are in general sufficient for Rwanda. From the evaluation, a selection of potential artificial and strategic storage development sites will be done.
  • Task 4 (strategic water resources management options) will be stakeholder driven where stakeholders include technical water experts as well. Based on the results of Task 3 various options will be discussed and most likely some refinement of Task 3 (scenario assessment) is needed. The latter might include different priority settings fine tuning of demands and refinement of strategic storage development sites.
  • Task 5 (revised national policy for water resources management) will focus on defining new policy statements and actions informed by the results from the previous tasks and developing a new water resources policy that will guide the country towards achieving the NST1 and Vision 2050 targets.

The objectives of this climate risk assessment for the Li River in China is to assess current flood risk and future flood risk in the Li river basin in China. With an average of 1800 mm annual total rainfall, floods are severe and frequent in the region. Additionally to rainfall, severe floods in are often related to discharges from upstream reservoirs

Given the fact that this area is data scarce, global datasets with climatic data (ERA5-Land), soil parameters (HiHydroSoil) and land cover (Copernicus) were used to feed a hydrological HEC-HMS model to calculate the discharge for the extreme event of June 2020. Based on measured water levels and discharge, it was possible to develop rating curves and with these rating curves, it was possible to estimate water levels in the river for current (validation) and future conditions. This analysis served as input for the full climate risk assessment,  in which possible interventions were proposed to reduce flood risk in the future.

The objectives of the Norfolk Water Fund is to secure good quality, long-term water resources for all water users, while protecting the environment and showcasing the county as an international exemplar for collaborative water management. The programme seeks to demonstrate how cross-sector, integrated water management and can deliver multiple benefits and help achieve the county’s net zero targets.

Water Funds are a well-established model for facilitating collective action to address water security challenges through the implementation of nature-based solutions (NBS) as a complement for more traditional so-called ‘grey’ infrastructure such as pipelines and treatment plants. Norfolk is one of two European pilots selected for Water Funds by The Nature Conservancy (TNC), to add to their global portfolio of Water Funds.

To deliver this programme, a variety of technical activities are required. These include assessing Water Security Challenges in the county, identifying the most relevant NBS to the context, and prioritising the most effective locations and strategies for their implementation. FutureWater will support these technical activities with NBS and water resources expertise alongside coordinating technical partners.

This tailor-made training aims to build capacity in using tools to support climate-smart irrigation strategies to improve salinity control and enhance agricultural production. The training provides participants with relevant hands-on experience and cutting-edge knowledge on innovative solutions in earth observation technologies and apply this to assess measures for increasing water efficiency in agriculture, increase production and achieve water and climate-smart agriculture.

The training programme will consist of two e-learning training periods, that are separated by a 3-week period of regular on-distance support. The main e-learning training will take place over a 6-week period and is structured around 3 training modules that are divided into several training sessions. These training sessions are comprised of plenary video conferences and include assignments that can be worked on pairwise of individually. Attendance and progress are monitored through the FutureWater Moodle School. Each training module is tailored around different tools for gaining insight into salinity issues, improving salinity control, and enhancing agricultural production in Iraq:

  1. Geospatial mapping of climatic variables, soil salinity and irrigated areas using remote sensing and cloud computing.
  2. Soil-water-plant modeling to determine optimal irrigation water allocations to control water tables and soil salinity.
  3. Crop water productivity options to achieve real water savings in irrigated agriculture.

It is expected that the obtained knowledge and capacity in better mitigating soil and water salinization problems will be embedded into the organization(s) of the participants. This will contribute to a further increase in the agricultural productivity and food security in Iraq.

“Gabon is a rapidly developing country that contains substantial amount of intact natural areas and biodiversity, and large untapped natural resource stocks, placing the country at the forefront of a green economic development opportunities. TNC supports the government in preserving Hydrologic Ecosystem Services which are essential to include into development projects as for example hydropower.

This study will assess these services for the Komo basin where certain pressure already exists due to forestry operations and planned hydropower. It will evaluate various management scenarios which may improve and sustain hydrological flow conditions and hydropower options. The analysis will help the government in implementing an integrated water resources management (IWRM) approach in this basin.

FutureWater will deliver this study through hydrological modeling and scenario analysis to assess how hydrological ecosystem services provision in the Komo basin can be improved by a series of potential alternative scenarios based.”

The proposed Mombasa Water Fund should secure and improve the quantity and quality of source waters for Mombasa City by channelling investments into source protection and catchment conservation measures of the watersheds. Current spring- and groundwater-based water supply infrastructure is insufficient to meet the city’s growing demands. Focus of the study is therefore on the watershed that serves a new water reservoir (Mwache Dam).

The design study will:

  • Assess the biophysical, financial, economic and socio-economic benefits of the MWF; and
  • Identify the potential governance and financing models to establish the MWF

FutureWater performs the biophysical analysis of this study. It aims to link activities in the watershed with positive outcomes for water security. Different combinations of solutions (nature-based primarily) are simulated through an hydrological modelling tool to assess impacts on water quantity and quality, including erosion and sediment yield. The model allows also to assess water demand versus supplies and resulting possible future shortages. Outputs are used in the economic analysis that will cost and valuate different alternative scenarios. The business case study should enable the creation of another successful Water Fund in sub-Saharan Africa promoted by The Nature Conservancy.

Het doel van deze berekeningen was om uitsluitsel te kunnen geven over de nut en noodzaak van de geplande bergingsgebieden ter invulling van de wateropgave uit 2009. Met behulp van een Sobek-model zijn verschillende scenarioberekeningen uitgevoerd waarbij waterstanden, afvoeren en NBW-knelpunten zijn vergeleken onder het huidige en toekomstig klimaat en met en zonder integratie van bergingsgebieden.

De werkzaamheden bestonden onder meer uit:

  1. Toetsing van afvoer en waterstanden op kritieke locaties voor het klimaatscenario bij verschillende herhalingstijden (NBW-toetsing voor toekomstig klimaat),
  2. Vergelijking van NBW-knelpunten onder het huidige en toekomstige klimaat,
  3. Integratie van bergingsgebieden in het Sobek model en analyse van de impact op waterstanden, afvoer en toekomstige NBW-knelpunten (resultaat nut en noodzaak bergingsgebieden: antwoord op het LBW-vraagstuk),
  4. Een eerste inschatting van kritieke locaties langs de overige keringen voor de verschillende scenarios (hoge resolutie vergelijking van waterstanden en keringenhoogtes) en
  5. Een vergelijking van de resultaten met een aantal eerder uitgevoerde studies.

Tijdens het project is de NBW-toetingsmethode, die in 2020 was ontwikkeld door Arcadis, (verder) geautomatiseerd, zodat de methode sneller en voor andere vergelijkbare projecten binnen Vechtstromen kan worden toegepast. Op basis van de uitkomsten uit de berekeningen kon een duidelijk advies worden gegeven over de nut en noodzaak van de voorgestelde bergingsgebieden uit 2009.

Meer informatie over de methode rondom de normering van regionale wateroverlast (NBW / LBW) die wordt gehanteerd door waterschap Vechtstromen is te vinden op de volgende website: https://www.vechtstromen.nl/over/klimaat/wateroverlast/normering/werkt-normering/

 

The Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation’s (SDCs) Global Programme Climate Change and Environment (GP CCE) India is supporting the operationalization of climate change adaptation actions in the mountain states of Uttarakhand, Sikkim and Himachal Pradesh through the phase two of the “Strengthening State Strategies for Climate Action” (3SCA) project that was launched in 2020. The second phase of 3SCA (2020-23), known as the Strengthening Climate Change Adaptation in Himalayas (SCA-Himalayas), while building on the experience and achievements of Phase 1, aims to showcase mountain ecosystem appropriate scalable approaches for climate resilience in water and disaster risk management sectors; using these efforts to enhance the capacities of the institutions across the Indian Himalayan Region (IHR) to plan, implement and mainstream adaptation actions into their programmes and policy frameworks; and disseminating the experiences and lessons at the regional and global level.

Within this programme, SDC has granted a project to FutureWater, together with Utrecht University, The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI), the University of Geneva and a few individual experts. The activities in this project focus on the development and application of climate responsive models and approaches for integrated water resources management (IWRM) for a selected glacier-fed sub-basin system in Uttarakhand and that at the same will find place in relevant policy frameworks paving way for their replication across IHR and other mountainous regions. This will allow the policy makers from the mountain states in India to manage the available water resources in an efficient and effective manner, benefiting the populations depending on these resources.

The combination of future climate change and socio-economic development poses great challenges for water security in areas depending on mountain water (Immerzeel et al., 2019). Climate change affects Asia’s high mountain water supply by its impact on the cryosphere. Changes in glacier ice storage, snow dynamics, evaporation rates lead to changes in runoff composition, overall water availability, seasonal shifts in hydrographs, and increases in extremely high and low flows (Huss and Hock, 2018; Lutz et al., 2014a). On the other and, downstream water demand in South Asia increases rapidly under population growth and increasing welfare boosting the demand for and electricity generation through hydropower. To address and adapt to these challenges integrated water resource management (IWRM) approaches and decision support systems (DSS) tailored to glacier- and snow-fed subbasins are required.

To fulfil the mandate outlined by SDC a framework is presented for IWRM and DSS for Himalayan subbasins consisting of three integrated platforms. (i) A modelling and decision support platform built around a multi-scale modelling framework for glacier and snow fed subbasins, based on state-of-the art and “easy to use” modelling technology. (ii) A stakeholder engagement platform to consult key stakeholders, identify key IWRM issues and co-design a new IWRM plan for Bhagirathi subbasin. (iii) A capacity building platform with on-site training and e-learning modules for the key project components: glacio-hydrological modelling, IWRM and DSS, to ensure the sustainability of the approach and pave the way for upscaling to other subbasins in the Indian Himalayan Region.

The three platforms are designed designed to be flexible, integrated and interactive. Moreover they align with the three outcomes of the project, thus contributing to: develop and validate an integrated climate resilient water resource management approach (Outcome 1); increase technical and institutional capacity in the fields of hydrological modelling, IWRM and DSS (Outcome 2); support the embedding of the IWRM approach tailored to glacier-fed Indian Himalayan subbasins in policies, and provide generic outputs and guidelines to facilitate upscaling to other subbasins in the Indian Himalayan Region (Outcome 3).

The modelling and decision support platform is designed for operation under the data scarce conditions faced in Himalayan catchments, and yields reliable outputs and projections. The modelling toolset covers the Bhagirathi watershed (Figure below) and consists of 3 hydrological models: (i) a high resolution glacio-hydrological model for the Dokriani glacier catchment (SPHY-Dokriani). Key parameters derived with this model are upscaled to (ii) a distributed glacio-hydrological model that covers the Bhagirathi subbasin (SPHYBhagirathi). Outputs of this model feed into (iii) a water allocation model that overlays the SPHY-Bhagirathi model in the downstream parts of the basin, where water demands are located (WEAPPODIUMSIM Bhagirathi). This modelling toolset is forced with downscaled climate change projections and socio-economic projections to simulate future changes in water supply and demand in the subbasin. On the basis of stakeholder inputs, adaptation options are identified and implemented in the water allocation model for scenario analysis. Thus, socio-economic projections and adaptation options are co-designed with the stakeholders to ensure maximum applicability, and are tailored to the requirements for formulation of the new IWRM plan. The outputs of the modelling toolset feed into the Decision Support System, where they are presented in such a way that they can truly support decision making in this subbasin. Results of the modelling, decision support and stakeholder engagement platforms jointly support the co-design of an IWRM plan for the subbasin. Capacity in glacio-hydrological modelling, IWRM and the use of DSS is built through a combination of on-site training and e-learning; replicable training modules are developed for glacio-hydrological modelling, IWRM and DSS in general and for this particular approach to support implementation and sustainability.

Overview of the Bhagirathi sub-basin. The inset on the right shows the Dokriani glacier watershed

 

This glacio-hydrological assessment delivered river flow estimates for three intake locations of hydropower plants in Nakra, Georgia. The assessment included the calibration of a hydrological model, daily river discharge simulation for an extended period of record (1980-2015), and the derived flow duration curves and statistics to evaluate the flow operation of hydropower turbines. The daily flow calculations for the three sites (HPP1, HPP2 and HPP3) can be used in the hydropower calculations, and to assess the overall profitability of the planned investment, considering energy prices, demand, etc.

In the Nakra basin, glacier and snow model parameters were tuned to obtain accurate river flow predictions. Also, the latest technology of remote sensing data on precipitation and temperature (product ERA5) was used to reduce potential errors in flow estimates. Even though these flow estimates are useful for short-medium term evaluations on profitability of the planned investment, climate change pose a challenge for long-term evaluations. Glacier-fed and snow-fed systems, such as the Nakra basin, are driven by a complex combination of temperature and precipitation. Due to future increasing temperature, and changing rainfall patterns, glacier and snow cover dynamics change under climate warming. This can lead to shifts in the flows, like a reduction in lowest flows, and higher discharge peaks when the hydrological system shifts towards a more rainfall-runoff influenced system (Lutz et al. 2016). This can jeopardize the sustainability of the project on the long-term. To provide a better understanding of future river flows, it is recommended to develop a climate change impact assessment.