Tijmen Schults – FutureWater

Currently, Pakistan’s energy mix consists of 58.8% thermal, 25.8% hydel, 8.6% nuclear, and 6.8% alternative sources, reflecting efforts to diversify from fossil fuels. Pakistan’s installed electricity generation capacity reached 41,557 MW by 2022, with significant growth in transmission line length over the past 5 years. However, the T&D system has not kept pace with the nearly 15,000 MW capacity added during 2017-2021 (ADB, 2024). Despite investments, transmission and distribution losses averaged about 18% over the last 5 years, exceeding the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority’s (NEPRA) 15.3% target. In 2020, 23.7% of generated energy was lost during transmission, distribution, and delivery (ADB, 2024). Notably, transmission and distribution losses exceed 25%, far higher than in comparable countries (GoP, 2017). Therefore, there is an urgent need to upgrade the existing distribution infrastructure to fulfill the energy demands and ensure steady socioeconomic development in the country. ADB will provide financing for four underperforming DISCOs, selected in consultation with the Ministry of Energy: Sukkur Electric Power Company (SEPCO), Hyderabad Electric Supply Company (HESCO), the Multan Electric Power Company (MEPCO), and the Lahore Electric Supply Company (LESCO) to:

to upgrade the critical infrastructure of these DISCOs to reduce technical losses.
to implement revenue protection measures to improve collections. Additionally, the project design includes embedded climate resilience and reform measures to enhance institutional capacity and financial sustainability.

These rehabilitation efforts will also take into account and address the growing impacts of climate change in four DISCOs. FutureWater will make use of state-of-the-art downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) ensembles, and other relevant hazards and local information to develop this CRA. Insights from the CRA will be used to devise adaptation strategies. Additionally, FutureWater will be reviewing the existing meteorological monitoring network and recommending additional potential monitoring sites for improved surveillance in the country. To further assist the Government of Pakistan, in actualizing its second Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) agenda which seeks to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per unit of GDP by 50% (compared to the level in 2016), by the year 2030, FutureWater will also develop a GHG account and prepare a Paris Agreement alignment assessment.

FutureWater recently concluded a two-week training program for the Blue Deal partnerships of Mozambique and Eswatini, aimed at enhancing the technical skills of water management professionals from ARA-Sul (Administração Regional de Águas do Sul), ARA-Norte (Administração Regional de Águas do Norte), and the Joint River Basin Authorities (JRBA) from Eswatini. For the training, six water experts travelled to The Netherlands to follow training sessions on a variety of topics related to water management. The collaboration between FutureWater and Blue Deal, funded through the Dutch Water Authorities, was organised to strengthen local capacity in water resource management and transboundary cooperation between the regional institutions.

The training, mostly held at the FutureWater office in Wageningen, focused primarily on applying WEAP (Water Evaluation And Planning), open-source data, tools, and flying sensors for agriculture. Over the past year, multiple WEAP models were co-created by FutureWater together with the local water authorities of Mozambique. For ARA-Norte, a strategic water allocation model for the Monapo River Basin was developed in WEAP. This basin is important for domestic and industrial water supply for Nampula, the third largest city in Mozambique inhabited by close to a million people. The model can be used for long-term planning and decision-making in the basin. For ARA-Sul, two WEAP models were developed. At first, an operational water allocation model was created for the Pequenos Libombos Reservoir, which supplies water to the Maputo City metropolitan and surrounding irrigation schemes. Additionally, a groundwater balance tool was developed for the same area. Both models can be used in assessing requests for water licensing and operational reservoir management and planning. During the training weeks, the water experts were trained in the use of the models and discussions were held on further improvement.

Besides WEAP modelling, the training program featured visits to the Water Boards Rijn & IJssel, and Vallei & Veluwe where firsthand experience was gained in Dutch water management. The training participants visited the control room at the water boards and several hydraulic infrastructure works or projects such as Room for the River. A demonstration day on flying sensors was provided together with our partner HiView providing practical knowledge on the use of drones in mapping floods or agricultural fields. We took the opportunity to hold user validation sessions to further develop the services of the GLObal Water Availability Forecasting Service (GLOW) with Hydrologic. Our collaboration with Blue Deal continues for the coming period.

Increasing water scarcity continues to threaten the agricultural sector in Asia. To address this critical issue, FAO and its partners have been developing a comprehensive Asia-Pacific Water Scarcity Programme (WSP) since 2019. The program aims to assess the ongoing issue of water scarcity in the region, evaluate potential management options, and assist partner countries in implementing adaptive management in the agricultural water sector using innovative tools and approaches.

Addressing the issue of water scarcity requires a sound understanding and development of water accounts to ensure evidence-based decision-making for equitable use and allocation of water resources under a changing climate. To achieve this, a comprehensive hands-on training program on water accounting will be developed and implemented across four countries: Indonesia, Lao PDR, Vietnam, and Thailand. In collaboration with the Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific (RAP) of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), FutureWater will design and deliver the water accounting training program. This program aims to not only improve participants’ understanding of water accounting but also enable them to use modern and innovative tools to develop water accounts, with a particular focus on quantifying linkages between field interventions and basin-scale hydrology.

Participants will work with tools such as REWAS and Follow the Water (developed by FutureWater in collaboration with FAO) to conduct water accounting in agricultural systems at different scales. Through the use of these tools, participants will be able to estimate real water savings at system and basin scales and analyze the impact of different irrigation schemes on the overall water availability in the system. Moreover, participants will also learn how to access and extract remotely sensed datasets to assess the status of the water resources in the Nam Ngum pilot basin.

The WEAP model simulates water availability, supply, and demand on a small scale for over 40 irrigation, domestic, and industrial sites, running on a daily timestep to include detailed reservoir operations and water use abstractions. The updated WEAP model was co-designed together with ARA-Sul, the regional water authorities of southern Mozambique. Monthly meetings were held to support information sharing and co-ownership throughout the project.

The model will aid ARA-Sul in water accounting and the licensing of water users served by the Pequenos Libombos Reservoir. The Pequenos Libombos Reservoir, with a storage capacity of 350 MCM, is the main water supplier to the Maputo Metropolitan Area inhabited by over 3 million people. In June 2024 sessions were held in The Netherlands were ARA-Sul was trained in the usage of the model.

The cover picture was taken by David Mucambe (ARA-Sul).

Soil erosion plays a critical role in soil and water conservation practices. Until recently, the WEAP model (Water Evaluation And Planning Tool), widely used for water resources planning assessments and scenario analyses, did not allow for the calculation of soil erosion. The WEAP Erosion plugin developed by FutureWater, fills this gap by allowing users to estimate soil erosion based on a simplified Modified Universal Soil Loss Equation (MUSLE) approach.

The use of WEAP plugins allow for the expansion of the base model with new processes and functionalities. As such, the WEAP Erosion plugin can be used to assess soil erosion for different land use types and management strategies (see figure below) in space and time. The WEAP Erosion plugin, originally developed in 2021, has recently been updated to the latest WEAP version (2023.0) and includes new features such as the automatic estimation of the average catchment slope.

Assessment of soil erosion for different land use and management strategies

The plugin was developed in association with the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) and can be freely used by each WEAP user. Since March 2024, the plugin has been officially included within the WEAP software and can be downloaded into models through the plugin menu. The plugin has been applied by FutureWater in projects for various partners, including The Nature Conservancy (TNC), World Bank, Asian Development Bank (ADB), and national water resource management institutes.

Interested in downloading the plugin? The plugin is available inside WEAP — click the Download button in the Plugins screen. The plugin and associated manual can be downloaded via this link.

To achieve the objectives the project has a technical component and stakeholder engagement component. On the technical side, hydrological models will be updated and validated. Climate change scenarios will be used as inputs for the testing of adaptation strategies within the Limpopo Basin. The adaptation include traditional grey infrastructure and additionally nature based solutions. The benefits analysis of the adaptation measure will cover macro and micro socio-economical benefits.

The results of this study will then be used to inform the development of a first-generation Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis (TDA) for the Limpopo River Basin (LRB). Through this, the individual basin countries will agree on a set of transboundary development priorities for the basin, which will guide both transboundary and national investments in the future, through a Strategic Action Plan (SAP) and National Action Plans (NAPs).

Within the project we cooperate with the hydrologists of ARA-Norte to discuss and establish the baseline for a water system analysis in the Monapo Catchment. Following discussion and mapping sessions, FutureWater is developing a Water Allocation Model in WEAP that includes climate change scenarios and mitigation and adaptation measures to asses the water availability of the catchment. Part of the assignment includes continuous training to local professional, to ensure the application of the developed model in the analysis of the system and elaborating specific proposal for implementation in the region.

FutureWater recently completed a visit to Mozambique, collaborating with the regional water authorities in both the north (ARA-Norte) and south (ARA-Sul). The visit was part of the Blue Deal Mozambique program aiming to strengthen the cooperation between the Dutch and Mozambican water authorities. Additionally, the mission supported the GLOW Project funded by the Partners for Water Program.

At ARA-Norte FutureWater delivered WEAP training sessions and held technical discussions on the water system of the Monapo River catchment. The training sessions on the WEAP modelling tool were tailor-made for intermediate and advanced WEAP users. Mapping sessions were held to identify key model components and possible scenarios that would aid the water authorities in designing their strategic water allocation plans. Through collaborative efforts a WEAP model for the Monapo River Basin will be developed in the first trimester of 2024. This will guide the water resource managers from ARA-Norte to develop their own WEAP models in the future.

At ARA-Sul, the visit built on existing cooperation with the local water resource managers to improve their strategic water allocation WEAP model for the Umbeluzi River catchment. Advanced training sessions were provided to the experts, as well as beginner training for the recently graduated professionals. A session was held especially dedicated to the analysis of the groundwater balance around the Pequenos Libombos Reservoir. FutureWater presented a tool to model the changes in groundwater storage resulting from climate change and groundwater exploitation. Both the strategic water allocation WEAP model and the groundwater tool are built from a strategic water resource management perspective, aiming to answer what-if questions for the coming 100 years.

Another important element of our visit was highlighting the progress on the GLOW project, discussing the water availability forecasting results, and improving the information that the dashboard is delivering, based on the user needs of ARA-Sul. Within the GLOW, we are providing information based on medium-range weather information and advanced hydrological models.

Groundwater availability is critical to the Umbeluzi Catchment. Currently, there is a need for a simple tool that can asses the availability of resources in the ground.

This especially to asses the permits for groundwater extractions. It is expected that a simplified modelling approach can provide a trend analysis sufficient for the water authorities in Mozambique to perform assessments of the sub-surface water availability. Furthermore, the water availability will be assessed for current and future conditions, under different scenarios of climate change and demand increase.

Within the project, FutureWater will develop a groundwater model in WEAP, using the Strategic Model previously build for the Umbeluzi catchment. To this end a detailed data gathering activity will take place proceed by developing the model. We aim to validate and improve the model with measurements available of groundwater levels in the catchment. The model will be validated with the technical team of ARA-Sul. Ultimately, a dedicated training session for ARA-SUl will ensure that model operation is performed by local experts.

In our ongoing commitment to bolster the efforts of ARA-Sul in Mozambique, FutureWater recently conducted an intensive training course focusing on the application of the Strategic Water Allocation Model within the Umbeluzi Catchment area. This significant initiative entailed the utilization of the renowned Water Evaluation and Planning System (WEAP) model, coupled with a comprehensive update of critical information and underlying assumptions.

The primary objective of this training was to empower the dedicated professionals at ARA-Sul with the knowledge and skills necessary to effectively manage and optimize water resources within the region. The strategic allocation of water resources is of paramount importance, especially in areas like the Umbeluzi Catchment, where water plays a pivotal role in sustaining livelihoods, ecosystems, and economic activities.

One key aspect of this training involved fine-tuning the analysis-scenarios to comprehensively assess potential bottlenecks and challenges within the water allocation system. Identifying these bottlenecks is essential for making informed decisions, developing mitigation strategies, and ensuring the sustainable utilization of water resources.

Our collaborative efforts with ARA-Sul extend beyond the training itself. We are committed to providing ongoing support and guidance to ensure the long-term success of this endeavor. Through regular follow-up activities and consultations, the technical professionals at ARA-Sul are now well-equipped to independently maintain their model and conduct the essential analyses required for informed decision-making.

More information on the training here