Khanal, S. – FutureWater

High Mountain Asia (HMA) serves as a major water source for large rivers in Asia. HMA consists of the Tibetan Plateau (TP), surrounded by the mountain ranges of Tien Shan, Pamir, Hindu Kush, and the Karakoram in the west, the Himalayas in the south and southeast, and Qilian Shan in the east. Over 1.4 billion people in various countries, including Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, and Tajikistan, depend on water originating from HMA.

The climate of High Mountain Asia (HMA) has changed in recent decades. While the temperature is consistently increasing at a higher rate than the global warming rate, precipitation changes are inconsistent, with substantial temporal and spatial variation. Climate warming will have enormous consequences for hydroclimatic extremes. For the higher altitudes of the HMA, which are a significant source of water for the large rivers in Asia, often trends are calculated using a limited number of in situ observations mainly observed in valleys. This study explores the changes in mean, extreme, and compound-extreme climate variables and their seasonality along the full altitudinal range in HMA using daily ERA5 reanalysis data (1979–2018).

The river basins analyzed in this study (black boundaries). Gray lines represent the upstream region of each major river basin. The background represents the elevation of the region. The arrows represent the major atmospheric circulation system, red for monsoon and blue for westerlies, in HMA. Also shown is the spatial distribution of mean annual (b) precipitation (mm) and (c) temperature (°C) during 1979–2018 across HMA.

Our analysis show that winter warming and summer wetting dominate the interior part of HMA. The results indicate a coherent significant increasing trend in the occurrence of heatwaves across all regions in HMA. The number of days with heavy precipitation shows more significant trends in southern and eastern basins than in other areas of HMA. The dry period occurrence shows a distinct demarcation between lower- and higher-altitude regions and is increasing for most basins. Although precipitation and temperature show variable tendencies, their compound occurrence is coherent in the monsoon-dominated basins. These changes in indicators of climatic extremes may imply substantial increases in the future occurrence of hazards such as floods, landslides, and droughts, which in turn impact economic production and infrastructure.

This work has been led by our employee Mr. Sonu Khanal under the PanTPE project. FutureWater has been working for the past 15 years in the region to address the issues related with water resources, cryosphere, and climate change.

For more information about the work please visit the following link.

For the operationalization of climate change adaptation actions in the Himalayan region, the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC) supports multiple partners at the national and sub-national level through the project “Strengthening Climate Change Adaptation in the Himalayas (SCA-Himalayas)” to enhance the institutional capacities across the Indian Himalayan Region to plan, implement and mainstream adaptation actions into projects, programs, and policy frameworks, with a focus on water resources management and disaster risk management.

To cover the ambitious objectives of an Integrated water resources management (IWRM), a consortium of experts from FutureWater (NL), Utrecht University (NL), University of Geneva (CH), and TERI (IN) was mandated to develop a glacio-hydrological and a Water Allocation Model with a focus on Dingad catchment and Bhagirathi Valley in Uttarakhand.

It is proposed that through a series of virtual and in-country training, the methodology, results and glacio-hydrological modeling tools (Spatial Processes in Hydrology–SPHY) shall be shared with the Central Water Commission (CWC), India. CWC after this training may carry forward the research and contribute towards the implementation of IWRM in the Indian Himalayan region.

With this perspective, three virtual capacity-building sessions on “Glacio-hydrological modeling with SPHY in the Indian Himalayan region” is being organized to train the staff member of CWC that were assigned for this purpose. The first virtual session is organized on 9^th March 2023.

These virtual training sessions will be accompanied by the final in-country training on 3-7^th July in Delhi, India, targeting a larger group of CWC staff.

A team of international experts will present conceptual background, inputs, model components, outputs, modelling results and guide the participants to apply SPHY glacio-hydrological model. International experts will provide virtual presentations on these aspects to the participants.

Target participants

The virtual training is addressed to five CWC officials which have been assigned, assuming the following expertise and skills:

Prior knowledge and experience with water resources data analysis, water resources management and planning, preferably in the Bhagirathi Basin
Good skills in data management tools e.g. excel spreadsheets, extracting basic statistics, preferably also related to GIS and modeling.
Willingness to participate in a future training session in July 2023.

Trainers

Dr Sonu Khanal (FutureWater), the lead expert for the training session; an expert on glacio-hydrological modeling of the Himalayas, with more than 10 years of experience in Asia, Europe, and Africa.
Dr. Faezeh Nick (Utrecht University), lead trainer for glacio-hydrological modelling; an expert on glacio-hydrological modeling of the Himalayas and Greenland, with over 16 years of experience working on glaciology, numerical modeling, hydrology and climate change.

More information about the project can be found here.

With a target to increase the gross domestic product from $70 billion in 2021 to $160 billion by 2030, the Government of Uzbekistan is taking steps to ensure that it will be able to meet the spike in electricity demand which is expected to double by 2030. Initiatives include installing an additional 17 gigawatts capacity to the existing available capacity of 12.9 GW, out of which 8 GW will be from renewable energy projects. Currently, the distribution system in Uzbekistan comprises of more than 260,000 kilometers of 0.4-110 kV networks, 1,655 substations and more than 86,000 transformer points. However, more than 50% of the lines have been operational for 30 years and 30% of the substation transformers are in dire need of rehabilitation. Therefore, the Asian Development Bank is working closely with the Joint Stock Company Regional Electric Power Networks (JSC REPN) to: i) Rehabilitate and modernize the distribution substations, ii) Rehabilitate associated distribution lines, and iii) Enhance the institutional capacity for financial sustainability and climate resiliency.

These rehabilitation efforts will also take into account and address the growing impacts of climate change in the region. For this, FutureWater has been assigned to carry out a climate risk and adaptation assessment (CRA). FutureWater will make use of state-of-the-art downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) ensembles, and other relevant hazards and local information to develop this CRA. Insights from the CRA will be used to devise adaptation strategies. Additionally, FutureWater will be reviewing the existing meteorological monitoring network and recommending additional potential monitoring sites for improved surveillance in the country. To further assist the Government of Uzbekistan actualize its second Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) agenda which seeks to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per unit of GDP by 35% (compared to the level in 2010), by the year 2030, FutureWater will also develop a GHG account and prepare a Paris Agreement alignment assessment.

The inital Climate Risk Assessment (CRA) by FutureWater in 2021 for the Asian Development Bank (ADB) identified the need for a detailed CRA for the DKSHEP to understand the risk posed by the changing climate on hydropower and the environment. Therefore, the objective of this Climate Risk and Adaptation Assessment (CRA) is to assess the vulnerability of the project components to future climate change and recommend adaptation options for climate-proofing the design. This CRA covers both type 2 adaptation, related to system change and resilience building, as well as type 1 adaptation related to climate-proofing. FutureWater will support ADB to ensure that the project will adequately address climate change mitigation and adaptation in accordance with ADB’s requirements.

FutureWater will make use of state-of-the-art downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) ensembles, and other relevant hazards and local information to develop this CRA. Insights from the CRA will be used to devise adaptation strategies. FutureWater will also ensure climate resilience measures are incorporated into the detailed design and environmental management planning before finalizing the climate change risk assessment. Together with the client’s engineering and safeguards team (Nepal Electricity Authority), FutureWater will ensure that the detailed design and environmental management plans incorporate all other recommended climate resilience measures and that their implementation is sufficiently detailed including bioengineering techniques, nature-based solutions, and an early warning system. FutureWater will collate the information and work closely with the national geological and GLOF consultants to review all available options for (i) sediment management plan, (ii) upstream catchment management plan, and (iii) emergency preparedness and response plan. FutureWater will provide several capacity-building sessions to the project team on the findings of the initial CRA, and the potential options for climate resilience measures to incorporate in the project design and operation to address the risks identified. Moreover, this project will develop a GHG account and prepare SARD climate change screening and Paris Agreement alignment assessment.

FutureWater in collaboration with the Asian Development Bank provided training on Climate and Disaster Risk Information Tools for Enhanced Decision Making from 14-15th February 2023 at Luang Prabang province in Laos.

Climate change and disaster risks present a serious and growing threat to sustainable development in Asia and the Pacific. ADB’s developing member countries, such as Lao PDR, sustain major impacts from both climate change and disasters. Lao PDR is at high risk from floods and droughts, the impacts of which are set to increase with climate change. ADB has been supporting the government in finalizing the National Climate Change Decree and Disaster Risk Management Law. Recognizing that urgent action is required to support Lao PDR in strengthening resilience through climate adaptation and disaster risk reduction, ADB has prioritized building climate and disaster resilience as one of its seven operational priorities under its Strategy 2030.

This capacity building aimed to improve understanding of the effective use of climate information and services to facilitate planning and decision-making under climate uncertainty. This training aimed to enhance technical capacity to generate, interpret and apply climate information in decision-making in sectors including agriculture, water, and energy. This training also incorporated disaster risk management as a key component of building overall resilience. The training focused on two sectors – food security and housing – to support risk-informed decision-making by enhancing the use of climate and disaster risk information through capacity building.

The participants for the training programme, 30 in total, are drawn from various organizations representing the provincial government (Department of Agriculture and Forestry, Department of Public Works and Transport and Department of Labour and Social Welfare) and the national ministries (the Ministry of Labour and Social Welfare, Ministry of Public Works and Transport, Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, Ministry of Planning and Investment, Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, Ministry of Education and Sports, Ministry of Health and Ministry of Home Affairs). The training was officially inaugurated by the (Deputy) Director General of the Social Welfare Department, ADB Disaster Management Specialist, Department of Sustainable Development and Climate Change, and the Ambassador of the Austrian Embassy.

Presentation made by the trainers during the training

FutureWater and project partners organized a training programme on “Integrated Water Resources Modelling under a Changing Climate in the Indian Himalayas”, from 21-24 November 2022 at National Institute of Hydrology (NIH), Roorkee by Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC), New Delhi in collaboration with NIH.

To promote water security in Himalayan states of India, SDC promotes decision support tools and capacity building on Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM). A consortium of national and international experts from FutureWater, Utrecht University from the Netherlands, University of Geneva and The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI), India was mandated to develop a glacio-hydrological and a water allocation model, develop an online Decision Support System and IWRM guidelines.

One key objective of this initiative is to undertake extensive capacity building in glacio-hydrological modelling and IWRM planning for relevant stakeholders. This four-day training program will focus on glacio-hydrological and water allocation modelling techniques to support an IWRM plan through onsite hands-on training and e-learning modules to enhance capacity of the stakeholders.

The training program was inaugurated by Dr. Sudhir Kumar, Director, National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee. He emphasised that as the IWRM concept considers viewpoints of human groups, factors of the human environment, and aspects of natural water systems together to bring out sustainable water management strategies, it provides a “comprehensive water management” plan.

Mr. Rishi Srivastava, Chief Engineer, Basin Planning & Management Organisation, Central Water Commission (CWC), who was connected virtually, underscored the importance of developing the IWRM considering local context for it to be successful He also highlighted the importance of considering environmental water in the IWRM plan.

Dr. Johannes Hunink, Managing Director, FutureWater gave an overview of the project and Dr. Sanjay Jain, Scientist G and Head, Water Resources System Division, NIH emphasized on the importance of glacio-hydrological modelling to understand future water availability in a mountain river basin and described the activities that NIH is undertaking presently on cryosphere.

Participants for the training programme are drawn from various state government departments and educational institutions in Uttarakhand.

For more information, please visit the project page and the SPHY (Spatial Processes in Hydrology model) website.

A stakeholder meeting on Glacio-hydrological modelling and IWRM planning for a sub-basin in Bhagirathi Basin, Uttarakhand was organized on 25 November, 2022 by FutureWater and project partners, in collaboration with the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC) and the Government of Uttarakhand in Dehradun.

SDC, as part of its strategy on climate change adaptation, has been partnering with the national and the sub-national governments of the Himalayan States for water resources management. SDC is supporting the operationalization of climate change adaptation actions in the State of Uttarakhand through the “Strengthening Climate Change Adaptation in Himalayas (SCA-Himalayas)” project during 2020-24. The project works in close collaboration with the Directorate of Environment Conservation and Climate Change, Government of Uttarakhand.

The accelerated rate of glacial melt in some of the important glaciers in Uttarakhand will have serious consequences for the freshwater ecosystems in the downstream river basins. The water demand is growing across all sectors- agriculture, industrial and domestic. The variability and uncertainty in water availability and increased demand across sectors raise concern among stakeholders and policymakers. To ensure water security for all in India, and in particular Himalayan states, Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) is the key solution. To cover the ambitious objectives on an IWRM, a consortium of national and international experts from FutureWater, Utrecht University from the Netherlands, University of Geneva and The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI), India was mandated to develop a glacio-hydrological and a water allocation model with focus on Dingad Catchment (encompassing Dokriani glacier) and Bhagirathi River Basin in Uttarakhand to support development of an IWRM plan.

The objective of the stakeholder meeting was to present the progress on various activities such as glacio-hydrological and water allocation modelling, analysis of various adaptation options and development of a web-Decision Support System (DSS) to support preparation and implementation of the IWRM plan.

For more information, please visit the project page.

With over 1,850 km of 500kV lines, 6,200 km of 220kV lines and 15,300 km of 110kV lines, the power transmission system in Uzbekistan is facing challenges with respect to deteriorating infrastructure and unreliable power supply. To address these issues, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) is assisting the Government of Uzbekistan through the “Uzbekistan Power Transmission Improvement Project” which aims to: i) improve the power transmission network capacity and reliability in the northwest region of the country, ii) reduce transmission losses, and iii) improve the operational efficiency of the power sector. This will be done through the i) construction of a new 220kV single-circuit overhead transmission line spanning over 364 km, ii) expansion, rehabilitation, and construction of 3 substations and iii) capacity building and institutional development.

Additionally, given the growing impacts of climate change in the region, FutureWater has been assigned to carry out a climate risk and adaptation assessment for 12 transmission lines and 2 substations in the country. FutureWater will make use of state-of-the-art downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) ensembles, and other relevant hazards and local information to develop this CRA. The insights from this assessment will enable ADB to justify climate financing for further enhancing the climate resilience of the grid system. Moreover, through the adoption of climate-resilient technologies and adaptation measures based on the climate risk assessment, the country will be able to cut down on their GHG emissions and ensure uninterrupted power supply in light of a changing climate. This will be complimented by deriving adaptation costs to justify the need for climate financing. In addition, FutureWater will also be reviewing the existing meteorological monitoring network and recommending additional potential monitoring sites for improved surveillance in the country.

Uzbekistan is highly sensitive to climate change which will cause changes in the water flows and distribution: water availability, use, reuse and return flows will be altered in many ways due to upstream changes in the high mountain regions, but also changes in water demand and use across the river basin. The resulting changes in intra-annual and seasonal variability will affect water security of Uzbekistan. Besides, climate change will increase extreme events which pose a risk to existing water resources infrastructure. An integrated climate adaptation approach is required to make the water resources system and the water users, including the environment, climate resilient.

This project will support the Ministry of Water Resources (MWR) of Uzbekistan in identifying key priorities for climate adaptation in the Amu Darya river basin and support the identification of investment areas within Amu Darya river basin. The work will be based on a basin-wide climate change risk assessment as well as on the government priorities with an explicit focus on reducing systemic vulnerability to climate change.

The project will undertake:

Climate change risk analysis and mapping on key water-related sectors, impacts on rural livelihoods, and critical water infrastructures.
Climate change adaptation strategic planning and identify barriers in scaling up adaptation measures at multiple scales with stakeholder consultation and capacity building approach.
Identification of priority measures and portfolios for integration into subproject development as well as for future adaptation investment in the Amu Darya river basin. The identification will cover shortlisting of potential investments, screening of economic feasibility, and potential funding opportunities.

FutureWater leads this assignment and develops the climate risk hotspot analysis, and coordinates the contribution of international and national experts, as well as the stakeholder consultation process.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) identified the need for a detailed Climate Risk and Adaptation (CRA) assessment for the DKSHEP to understand the risk posed by the changing climate on hydropower and the environment. Therefore, the objective of this Climate Risk and Adaptation Assessment (CRA) is to assess the vulnerability of the project components to future climate change and recommend adaptation options for climate-proofing of the design. Therefore, this CRA covers both type 2 adaptation, related to system change and resilience building, as well as type 1 adaptation related to climate-proofing This CRA assesses historic trends in relevant climate-related variables and analyses climate projections for the DKSHEP. Based on these projections, an assessment of the current and future climate risks and vulnerabilities relating to the proposed project activities will be outlined. Finally, recommendations will be presented for climate adaptation measures.