Corjan Nolet – FutureWater

FutureWater will develop a high-level climate change and adaptation assessment for Turkmenistan to strengthen the water and agriculture sector’s resilience against climate change. The work involves a detailed hazard mapping exercise, employing observational and satellite-based information, to identify climate-related risks such as droughts, water scarcity, heat, salinity, erosion, and floods. These mapped hazards will be synthesized at the administrative level, presenting a comprehensive visual representation through figures and tables.

Key exposure and vulnerability datasets will be mapped, and pertinent sources for subsequent collection and analysis will be identified, setting the stage for a detailed risk assessment beyond the scope of work. The key output of this effort is the assembly of an inventory of climate adaptation measures gleaned from existing reports and official documents, contextualized to Turkmenistan’s unique circumstances, and an initial gap and opportunity assessment based on this inventory.

Based on the assessment, the adaptation options will be categorized and an initial prioritization will take place based on each option’s potential to mitigate risks across various hazards, its capacity for impactful outcomes beyond local scales, and a relative indication of expected cost-effectiveness. The outcome should provide a foundation for an integrated climate adaptation project. Concurrently, FutureWater will engage in country consultations, collaborating with stakeholders to confirm or refine identified adaptation options. These consultations will also explore potential synergies with ongoing and planned projects initiated by both the government and development partners.

The objective is to support the delineation and launching of a a Watershed Investment Program to improve multi-stakeholder collaboration and sustainable funding mechanisms to protect and restore riparian buffer zones and to implement runoff attenuation features to reduce eroded sediments entering the river.

To support the science streams, FutureWater is applying open source tools such as INVEST and RIOS Tool, together with Remote Sensing analysis to elaborate on a NbS opportunity mapping analysis. Besides, we aim to provide quantitative results on NbS benefits to reduce sediment loads entering the river system.

FutureWater proudly presents the culmination of an extensive study on climate risk assessment for key crop production in Turkey, Egypt, and Morocco. The report is a significant contribution to the CREATE project (Cross-Border Climate Vulnerabilities and Remote Impacts of Food Systems of the EU, Turkey, and Africa), funded by the European Research Area Network (ERA-Net) Cofund on Food Systems and Climate (FOSC).

The primary objective of the study was to map crop-specific climate risks under both the mild SSP2-4.5 and the severe SSP5-8.5 climate change scenarios, offering a comprehensive view of the challenges facing the agricultural sectors in these countries. The research has resulted in the integration of diverse datasets on climate change hazards, vulnerability, and exposure, creating district-level climate risk maps for Turkey, Egypt, and Morocco.

The study analyzed both annual crops (rice, potato) and perennial crops (apricot, fig, grape, hazelnut, orange, and tangerine), providing crucial insights into the climate risks associated with each crop type. The findings are crucial in understanding the cross-border climate risks on key crop production, particularly concerning the agri-food trade between the EU and Turkey, Egypt, and Morocco. They provide valuable decision support for governments, development agencies, and stakeholders, aiding in the formulation of informed actions to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on agri-food trade.

Risk class distribution as a percentage of the national production of key crops for Turkey, Egypt,
and Morocco and presented for both the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate scenarios.

The climate risk assessment of key crops for the Agri-Food trade between Europe, Africa, and Turkey is available for download on our website.

The development of the WEAP model for the Thika Chania catchment has come to a stage that it is sufficiently mature for being used over the next year to assess different management scenarios for the Water Allocation Plan. These management options can now be evaluated considering climate change impacts on water resources for different horizons, namely 2030 and 2050.

With this updated model, and the provided trainings, the Water Resources Authority of Kenya is now able to extract Climate Change data for different regions, set-up different WEAP models for different basins, and interpret the results for different time horizons.

Funded by Nuffic as part of the Mena Scholarship Programme and requested by The Center for Conservation and Development of Sustainable Ecosystems (ZIPAK) in Iran, the training focused on providing participants with relevant hands-on experience in tools and techniques to enhance their capacity to manage (protected) ecosystems in Iran.

Over the course of 10 days, the participants gained hands-on experience in leveraging the Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP) for performing climate risk and vulnerability assessments, leveraging the online dashboard Earth Map for environmental hazard mapping and socio-economic risk assessments and ppplying the InVest model (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs) for assessing ecosystem service provision. The training took place in Wageningen and included an interesting excursion to the Marker Wadden, to highlight ecosystem restoration projects in the Netherlands.

Training taking place in Wageningen, The Netherlands

Participant receiving certificate of completion

With a target to increase the gross domestic product from $70 billion in 2021 to $160 billion by 2030, the Government of Uzbekistan is taking steps to ensure that it will be able to meet the spike in electricity demand which is expected to double by 2030. Initiatives include installing an additional 17 gigawatts capacity to the existing available capacity of 12.9 GW, out of which 8 GW will be from renewable energy projects. Currently, the distribution system in Uzbekistan comprises of more than 260,000 kilometers of 0.4-110 kV networks, 1,655 substations and more than 86,000 transformer points. However, more than 50% of the lines have been operational for 30 years and 30% of the substation transformers are in dire need of rehabilitation. Therefore, the Asian Development Bank is working closely with the Joint Stock Company Regional Electric Power Networks (JSC REPN) to: i) Rehabilitate and modernize the distribution substations, ii) Rehabilitate associated distribution lines, and iii) Enhance the institutional capacity for financial sustainability and climate resiliency.

These rehabilitation efforts will also take into account and address the growing impacts of climate change in the region. For this, FutureWater has been assigned to carry out a climate risk and adaptation assessment (CRA). FutureWater will make use of state-of-the-art downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) ensembles, and other relevant hazards and local information to develop this CRA. Insights from the CRA will be used to devise adaptation strategies. Additionally, FutureWater will be reviewing the existing meteorological monitoring network and recommending additional potential monitoring sites for improved surveillance in the country. To further assist the Government of Uzbekistan actualize its second Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) agenda which seeks to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per unit of GDP by 35% (compared to the level in 2010), by the year 2030, FutureWater will also develop a GHG account and prepare a Paris Agreement alignment assessment.

Solidaridad and FutureWater partnered to conduct a tailor-made training on ‘Geo-spatial data skills development for improved soil water management and enhanced crop productivity at the national level in Zambia’.

The training project for the Zambia Agricultural Research Institute (ZARI) was a Tailor-Made Training (TMT), as part of the Orange Knowledge Programme, funded by Nuffic, and enhanced capacity in accessing and using innovative data and tools in the public domain, to analyse crop performance and improve soil water management.

Staff of ZARI and the Ministry of Agriculture were trained on a range of geospatial data skills, including survey design using Kobo Collect, and remote sensing environmental analysis using GIS, Google Earth Engine, Earth Map and InVEST. The feedback received from participants was very positive:

“The TMT is a well-developed program that provides important tools for brushing up one’s skills in data compilation and analysis. The program materials are easy to go through and the instructors were friendly and easygoing. The training package included a good set of free and open-source tools for a wide variety of purposes, including; Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) assessments, monitoring agricultural land and urban areas and exploring how changes in ecosystems can lead to changes in the flows of many different benefits to people. The knowledge and insights provided in the TMT program are well delivered”

Chrispin Moyo Principal Agricultural Specialist Ministry of Agriculture Zambia

“This course gave me a good understanding of the applications of GIS and remote sensing in soil and water management. I’m particularly excited about the opportunity to quantify the benefits which regenerative agricultural practices would have on degraded environments using the InVEST tool. This was one of my best learning experiences and I can’t thank the organisers and trainers enough. Thank you to FutureWater, Solidaridad and Nuffic for a well-tailored and excellently delivered training.”

Belinda Kaninga (Ph.D) Senior Research Officer/Soil Scientist Zambia Agriculture Research Institute (ZARI)

More information about the project can be found here.

Trainers and participants during the closing event

Participant during the training sessions

Water resources around the globe are under increasing stress. Among other factors, climate change, rising food and energy demand, and improving living standards have led to a six-fold increase in global water withdrawals over the last century, with significant consequences for water quality and availability, ecosystem health, biodiversity, as well as social stability.

By advancing and linking water system models with models from sectors such as agriculture and energy, biodiversity, or sediment transport, the SOS-Water Project aims to lay the foundations for a holistic assessment framework of water resources across spatial scales. Based on five case studies of river basins in Europe and Vietnam – the Jucar River Basin in Spain, the Upper Danube region, the Danube and Rhine River deltas, and the Mekong River Basin – an interdisciplinary team of researchers from ten institutions across eight countries will develop a multidimensional SOS for water. The framework will enable the assessment of feedback loops and trade-offs between different dimensions of the water system and help address pressing global, regional, and local challenges.

In addition to going beyond state-of-the-art water systems modeling, the project will develop a comprehensive set of indicators to assess and monitor the environmental, social, and economic performance of water systems. The participating researchers will collaborate with regional and local authorities, water user representatives, non-governmental organizations, and citizens to co-create future scenarios and water management pathways. By streamlining water planning at different levels, it can be ensured that water allocation among societies, economies, and ecosystems will be economically efficient, socially fair, and resilient to shocks.

In partnership with project lead IIASA and partners such as Utrecht University and EAWAG, FutureWater is responsible for several tasks under the work package that looks to improve upon existing Earth Observation technologies for monitoring the performance of water systems. New applications will be developed and tested in the context of the SOS-Water case study basins of the Mekong and Jucar rivers.

For more information about the project visit the official website.

The TWIGA Final Conference was held on 11 and 12 July as a hybrid event in De Oude Bibliotheek in Delft, the Netherlands, and online. The event gathered on both days 27 participants present in person and 15 online, including consortium partners, representatives of two sister projects AfriCultuReS and e-Shape, Advisory Board members, and the EC Project Officer.

Over the past 4 years, the TWIGA project provided actionable geo-information on weather, water, and climate in Africa through innovative combinations of new in situ sensors and satellite-based geo-data. The TWIGA consortium comprised seven research organisations, nine SMEs and two government organisations. In addition it used a network of 500 ground weather stations in Africa, providing ready-to-use technical infrastructure.

The program was structured to present the results of the project per Work Package during the first day, which was an internal consortium meeting, and the demonstration of the TWIGA Services, the legacy of TWIGA, and the future opportunities during the second day, which was a public event.

FutureWater team members Sergio Contreras, Corjan Nolet and Martijn de Klerk presented the successful development of the MapYourCrop drone service and InfoSequia drought early warning service. More information on the project can be found here.

TWIGA Aftermovie:

To facilitate the needs of ZIPAK, this training aims to build data-driven capacities relevant to sustainable nature conservation practices and ecosystem-based natural resources management in Iran:

Leveraging the Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP) for performing climate risk and vulnerability assessments
Leveraging the online dashboard Earth Map for environmental hazard mapping and socio-economic risk assessments
Applying the InVest model (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs) for assessing ecosystem service provision

The training focuses on knowledge and skills development and how how to meaningfully integrate these capabilities into ZIPAK’s objectives on sustainable management of the environment and natural resources.