Gewasgroeimodellen – FutureWater

De TU Delft en TAHMO (Trans-African Hydro-Meteorological Observatory) zijn samen met de Nederlandse ambassade in Ghana een project gestart om lokale weergegevens te verbeteren, Ghanese boeren te helpen er bruikbare informatie uit te halen en daarmee een klimaatslimme tuinbouwsector in Ghana te bevorderen.

FutureWater ondersteunt het project door onderzoek te doen naar optimale plantdata voor verschillende gewassen die veel in Ghana verbouwd worden, zoals tomaat, aubergines en uien. Het einddoel is om boeren en voorlichters te voorzien van locatie-specifieke informatie over optimale plantdata voor verschillende tuinbouwgewassen.

Onze methodologie is geïnspireerd op Agoungbome et al. (2024) en hun analyse van veilige zaaiperioden in West-Afrika. We zullen drie verschillende benaderingen voor het bepalen van plantdata evalueren: een op regenval gebaseerde strategie die een accumulatie van 20 mm vereist zonder daaropvolgende droge periodes, een agronomische aanzet die opeenvolgende regendagen vereist, en een modelgebaseerd veilig zaai-venster dat data identificeert die ten minste 90% van het maximale potentieel opleveren.

We zullen het FAO AquaCrop model gebruiken om de gewasgroei te simuleren onder verschillende plantdata over de afgelopen 30 jaar. Door meer dan honderd verschillende plantdata per jaar te simuleren, kunnen we de effectiviteit van zowel traditionele als weergegevensgestuurde plantstrategieën beoordelen. Bovendien kunnen we beoordelen hoe de optimale plantdata de afgelopen 30 jaar al zijn verschoven als gevolg van klimaatverandering en hoe droogte de optimale plantstrategieën beïnvloedt.

Dit zal ook de eerste keer zijn dat FutureWater gebruik zal maken van de open-source Python versie van AquaCrop, ontwikkeld door onze voormalige collega Tim Foster. Het zal spannend zijn om de nauwkeurigheid van het AquaCrop-model te zien samensmelten met de kracht van het Python-raamwerk. Waar mogelijk zullen we ook onderzoeken hoe het AquaCrop OSPy model kan worden uitgebreid met meer functies van het originele AquaCrop model, zoals vruchtbaarheidssimulatie.

Dit project zal niet alleen nieuw terrein verkennen op het gebied van zaairamen in Ghana, maar het zal ook bruikbare informatie opleveren voor Ghanese boeren en hen helpen zich beter voor te bereiden op een klimaat dat al aan het veranderen is.

Agoungbome, S. M. D., ten Veldhuis, M.-C., & van de Giesen, N. (2024). Safe Sowing Windows for Smallholder Farmers in West Africa in the Context of Climate Variability. Climate, 12(3), 44. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12030044

Het BUCRA-project (Building Unity for Climate Resilient Agriculture) richt zich op het versterken van de landbouwresistentie in Qahbunah, een landbouwgemeenschap in de Nijldelta van Egypte. Lokale boeren worden geconfronteerd met uitdagingen zoals waterschaarste, klimaatverandering en versnippering van landbouwgrond, en hebben innovatieve benaderingen nodig om hun levensonderhoud te behouden.

Centraal in BUCRA staan twee geavanceerde tools ontwikkeld door FutureWater: Croptimal en SOSIA, die geavanceerde technologie combineren met lokale kennis om traditionele landbouwpraktijken te transformeren.

Croptimal is een analyse-instrument voor klimaatgevoeligheid dat klimaatprojecties, geospatiale gegevens en landbouwinzichten benut om de geschiktheid van verschillende gewassen te beoordelen onder huidige en toekomstige klimaatscenario’s. Door gebieden en gewassen te identificeren die het meest bestand zijn tegen klimaatstressfactoren zoals hitte, zoutgehalte en waterschaarste, biedt Croptimal boeren datagestuurde aanbevelingen om hun gewaskeuze en plantstrategieën te optimaliseren. Deze tool levert zeer gedetailleerde kaarten en bruikbare adviezen, waardoor boeren hun praktijken kunnen aanpassen aan de uitdagingen van klimaatverandering en tegelijkertijd hun productiviteit kunnen verhogen.

SOSIA (Satellite-based Open-Source Irrigation Advisory) is een irrigatiebeheertool die is ontworpen om de efficiëntie van watergebruik te verbeteren. De tool maakt gebruik van open-source satellietgegevens, realtime weersinformatie en lokale bodemomstandigheden om nauwkeurige dagelijkse irrigatie-adviezen te geven. Boeren ontvangen via WhatsApp aanbevelingen over hoe lang zij hun gewassen dagelijks moeten irrigeren, waardoor de dienst zowel toegankelijk als kosteneffectief is. Deze innovatieve aanpak vermindert niet alleen het waterverbruik, maar verhoogt ook de gewasopbrengsten en energie-efficiëntie, en speelt zo in op de toenemende druk op watervoorraden in de Nijldelta.

Naast deze tools bevat BUCRA demonstratiepercelen waar klimaatslimme technieken worden getoond, zoals efficiënte irrigatie, bodembeheer en gewasrotatie. Boeren zullen ook deelnemen aan een blended leerprogramma dat veldgerichte training combineert met gebruiksvriendelijke digitale toepassingen om hun technische vaardigheden en kennis te verbeteren.

BUCRA legt sterke nadruk op het empoweren van jongeren en vrouwen in de landbouw, het versterken van marktverbindingen en het bevorderen van duurzame landgebruikspraktijken. Door Nederlandse expertise af te stemmen op lokale behoeften, streeft het project ernaar de productiviteit te verhogen, inkomens te stabiliseren en een duurzame agrarische toekomst op te bouwen in Qahbunah.

De langetermijnvisie is om bredere adoptie van deze tools en praktijken te inspireren, waardoor voedsel- en waterveiligheid in de regio wordt gegarandeerd en de uitdagingen van klimaatverandering effectief worden aangepakt.

Uzbekistan is highly sensitive to climate change which will cause changes in the water flows and distribution: water availability, use, reuse and return flows will be altered in many ways due to upstream changes in the high mountain regions, but also changes in water demand and use across the river basin. The resulting changes in intra-annual and seasonal variability will affect water security of Uzbekistan. Besides, climate change will increase extreme events which pose a risk to existing water resources infrastructure. An integrated climate adaptation approach is required to make the water resources system and the water users, including the environment, climate resilient.

This project will support the Ministry of Water Resources (MWR) of Uzbekistan in identifying key priorities for climate adaptation in the Amu Darya river basin and support the identification of investment areas within Amu Darya river basin. The work will be based on a basin-wide climate change risk assessment as well as on the government priorities with an explicit focus on reducing systemic vulnerability to climate change.

The project will undertake:

Climate change risk analysis and mapping on key water-related sectors, impacts on rural livelihoods, and critical water infrastructures.
Climate change adaptation strategic planning and identify barriers in scaling up adaptation measures at multiple scales with stakeholder consultation and capacity building approach.
Identification of priority measures and portfolios for integration into subproject development as well as for future adaptation investment in the Amu Darya river basin. The identification will cover shortlisting of potential investments, screening of economic feasibility, and potential funding opportunities.

FutureWater leads this assignment and develops the climate risk hotspot analysis, and coordinates the contribution of international and national experts, as well as the stakeholder consultation process.

De mediterrane regio staat voor groeiende uitdagingen om de voedsel- en watervoorziening te waarborgen, aangezien landen te maken krijgen met een toenemende vraag en een afnemende beschikbaarheid van natuurlijke hulpbronnen. De nexus-benadering is gericht op het beheren en benutten van synergieën tussen sectoren door middel van efficiënt en geïntegreerd beheer van de Water-, Energie-, Voedsel- en Ecosystemen-nexus (WEFE).

De doelstellingen van BONEX zijn het bieden van praktische en aangepaste hulpmiddelen, het onderzoeken van concrete en contextspecifieke technologische innovaties, het verbeteren van beleid en governance en het vergemakkelijken van de praktische implementatie van de WEFE-nexus, waarbij sociale, economische en ecologische afwegingen in balans worden gebracht.

Het project heeft als doel een nieuw, transdisciplinair diagnostisch WEFE-bridging framework te ontwikkelen, dat methoden op een contextspecifieke manier combineert en verder gaat dan disciplinaire silo’s. De diagnostische hulpmiddelen ter ondersteuning van dit framework zullen worden ontwikkeld en getest in zeven geselecteerde demonstratieprojecten in de regio, waarin innovatieve technologieën worden gepilot (zoals agrivoltaïsche systemen en systemen voor hergebruik van afvalwater).

Als resultaat zal BONEX beleidsmakers en praktijkmensen voorzien van een interactief besluitvormingsinstrument om afwegingen, synergieën en nexus-oplossingsbenaderingen op een transdisciplinaire manier te evalueren. Bovendien zal het waardevolle ervaringen opleveren met het op maat maken van innovatieve WEFE-nexus technologieën, wat nieuwe zakelijke kansen biedt. De WEFE-nexusbenadering is noodzakelijk om duurzame agrovoedselsystemen te implementeren en ecosystemen te behouden.

Binnen BONEX zal FutureWater actief bijdragen aan het pakket van diagnostische hulpmiddelen. Een eenvoudige waterboekhoudtool (REWAS) zal worden gebruikt om te evalueren of met innovatieve technologieën ‘echte waterbesparingen’ worden gerealiseerd. De waterboekhoudtool evalueert waterstromen op veldniveau en op schaal van irrigatiedistricten en bepaalt of er daadwerkelijk ‘echte besparingen’ worden behaald. De tool houdt ook rekening met voedselproductie (opbrengst van gewassen) en zal componenten introduceren voor het evalueren van energie- en waterkwaliteitsaspecten om de WEFE-nexusaspecten aan te vullen. De zeven demonstratieprojecten zullen worden gebruikt om deze waterboekhoudtool te demonstreren en iteratief te ontwikkelen. Een hydrologische analyse zal worden uitgevoerd op geselecteerde locaties om ook de impact op stroomgebiedschaal te evalueren. Uiteindelijk zullen de resultaten van deze analyses worden vertaald naar beleidsimplicaties en bijdragen aan de realisatie van de duurzame ontwikkelingsdoelen (SDG’s).

Dit project maakt deel uit van het PRIMA-programma, ondersteund door de Europese Unie.

Agriculture is a key sector of the Rwandan economy; it contributes approximately 33% to the gross domestic product and employs more than 70% of the entire labour force. Although some farmers are already using water-efficient irrigation infrastructure, too much of the available water is still lost due to unsustainable use of existing irrigation systems, and/or maximum crop yields are not achieved due to under-irrigation.

Hence, small to medium-sized food producers in Rwanda do not have sufficient access to information regarding optimal irrigation practices. To close this information gap, FutureWater has devised an innovation that can calculate a location-specific irrigation advice based on Virtual Weather Stations, expressed in an irrigation duration (“SOSIA”). The use of the outdated CROPWAT 8.0 method, and the lack of good coverage of real-time weather stations in Rwanda, means that current advice falls short. In addition, existing advisory services are often too expensive for the scale on which small to medium-sized farmers produce. There is a potential to increase the productivity of the irrigation water by up to 25%. Initially, the innovation will be disseminated via the Holland Greentech network, with a pilot in Rwanda consisting of 40 customers. Aside from further refining the SOSIA tool, upscaling strategies will be explored in this second phase to identify other intermediaries that could benefit from the SOSIA service so to realize its optimal impact.

FutureWater has found with Holland Greentech an ideal partner to roll-out this innovation due to their presence in and outside of Rwanda, where they provide irrigation kits and advice. This offers the opportunity to quickly scale-up the proposed innovation. With their expertise in agro-hydrological modeling and the African agricultural sector, FutureWater and Holland Greentech respectively have acquired ample experience to make this innovation project and its knowledge development to a success.

The tools can be accessed through online URLs for the Virtual Weather Stations and for the Irrigation Advisory Tool.

The beneficiaries of this training, provided by FutureWater together with Solidaridad, belong to the Zambia Agricultural Research Institute (ZARI).

ZARI is a department within the Ministry of Agriculture of Zambia with the overall objective to provide a high quality, appropriate and cost-effective service to farmers, generating and adapting crop, soil and plant protection technologies. This department comprises a number of sections, one of which, for the purpose of this training request is the Soil and Water Management (SWM) division. ZARI and the SWM carry out demand-driven research, trying to find solutions to the problems faced by Zambian small-scale farmers, especially considering the near- and long-term impacts of climate change.

The training programme consists of a hybrid approach of e-learning and in-person training sessions and is structured around the following modules:

Remote sensing-based analysis using Google Earth Engine to assess trends in land use, management, degradation and hotspots for intervention.
Data collection and database management.
GIS and remote sensing to assess suitability for SWC.
Effectiveness and prioritization of SWC using open-source tools.
Independent working on case study.

At the end of the training, it is expected that participants have achieved several objectives such as acquisition of technical skills for extracting relevant data from open access remote sensing products and improved knowledge of data collection and database management.

In irrigated agriculture options to save water tend to focus on improved irrigation techniques such as drip and sprinkler irrigation. These irrigation techniques are promoted as legitimate means of increasing water efficiency and “saving water” for other uses (such as domestic use and the environment). However, a growing body of evidence, including a key report by FAO (Perry and Steduto, 2017) shows that in most cases, water “savings” at field scale translate into an increase in water consumption at system and basin scale. Yet despite the growing and irrefutable body of evidence, false “water savings” technologies continue to be promoted, subsidized and implemented as a solution to water scarcity in agriculture.

The goal is to stop false “water savings” technologies to be promoted, subsidized and implemented. To achieve this, it is important to quantify the hydrologic impacts of any new investment or policy in the water sector. Normally, irrigation engineers and planners are trained to look at field scale efficiencies or irrigation system efficiencies at the most. Also, many of the tools used by irrigation engineers are field scale oriented (e.g. FAO AquaCrop model). The serious consequences of these actions are to worsen water scarcity, increase vulnerability to drought, and threaten food security.

There is an urgent need to develop simple and pragmatic tools that can evaluate the impact of field scale crop-water interventions at larger scales (e.g. irrigation systems and basins). Although basin scale hydrological models exist, many of these are either overly complex and unable to be used by practitioners, or not specifically designed for the upscaling from field interventions to basin scale impacts. Moreover, achieving results from the widely-used FAO models such as AquaCrop into a basin-wide impact model is time-consuming, complex and expensive. Therefore, FutureWater developed a simple but robust tool to enhance usability and reach, transparency, transferability in data input and output. The tool is based on proven concepts of water productivity, water accounting and the appropriate water terminology, as promoted by FAO globally (FAO, 2013). Hence, the water use is separated in consumptive use, non-consumptive use, and change in storage.

A complete training package was developed which includes a training manual and an inventory of possible field level interventions. The training manual includes the following aspects:

Introduce and present the real water savings tool
Describe the theory underlying the tool and demonstrating some typical applications
Learn how-to prepare the data required for the tool for your own area of interest
Learn when real water savings occur at system and basin scale with field interventions

For smallholder farming systems, there is a huge potential to increase water productivity by improved (irrigated) water management, better access to inputs and agronomical knowledge and improved access to markets. An assessment of the opportunities to boost the water productivity of the various agricultural production systems in Mozambique is a fundamental precondition for informed planning and decision-making processes concerning these issues. Methodologies need to be employed that will result in an overall water productivity increase, by implementing tailored service delivery approaches, modulated into technological packages that can be easily adopted by Mozambican smallholder farmers. This will not only improve the agricultural (water) productivity and food security for the country on a macro level but will also empower and increase the livelihood of Mozambican smallholder farmers on a micro level through climate resilient production methods.

This pilot project aims at identifying, validating and implementing a full set of complementary Technological Packages (TP) in the Zambezi Valley, that can contribute to improve the overall performance of the smallholders’ farming business by increasing their productivity, that will be monitored at different scales (from field to basin). The TPs will cover a combination of improvement on water, irrigation, and agronomical management practices strengthened by improved input and market access. The goal is to design TPs that are tailored to the local context and bring the current family sector a step further in closing the currently existing yield gap. A road map will be developed to scale up the implementation of those TPs that are sustainable on the long run, and extract concrete guidance for monitoring effectiveness of interventions, supporting Dutch aid policy and national agricultural policy. The partnership consisting of Resilience BV, HUB, and FutureWater gives a broad spectrum of expertise and knowledge, giving the basis for an integrated approach in achieving improvements of water productivity.

The main role of FutureWater is monitoring water productivity in target areas using an innovative approach of Flying Sensors, a water productivity simulation model, and field observations. The flying sensors provide regular observations of the target areas, thereby giving insight in the crop conditions and stresses occurring. This information is used both for monitoring the water productivity of the selected fields and determining areas of high or low water productivity. Information on the spatial variation of water productivity can assist with the selection of technical packages to introduce and implement in the field. Flying sensors provide high resolution imagery, which is suitable for distinguishing the different fields and management practices existent in smallholder farming.

In May 2020, FutureWater launched an online portal where all flying sensor imagery from Mozambique, taken as part of the APSAN-Vale project, can be found: futurewater.eu/apsanvaleportal

Project video: Portrait of the activities on water productivity

Geodata tools have been developing rapidly in the past years and are vastly adopted by researchers and increasingly by policy-makers. However, the is still great potential to increase the practical application of these tools in the agricultural sector, which is currently applied by a limited number of ‘pioneering’ farmers. The information that can be gained from geodata tools on irrigation management, pest and nutrient management, and crop selection, is a valuable asset for farmers. Key players for providing such information to the farmers are the extensions officers. This project aims at training extension officers in the use of these geodata tools. The beneficiaries in Egypt are: Tamkeen for Advanced Agriculture, FAODA, IDAM, Bio-Oasis, and LEPECHA. The selected participants will receive a training programme which consists firstly of several session on the background and theory of the geodata tools, provided through our online teaching platform (futurewater.moodle.school). Starting from May (2021) field schools will be set up to use the geodata tools for decision-making in these demonstration plots. In addition, modules are taught on the quality of the data, and profitability of such tools. Altogether, a group of carefully selected participants will receive training on these innovative tools and create a bridge to providing this information to farmers specifically the smallholder farmers.

In Sub-Saharan Africa, population growth, associated food demand and pressure on natural areas have all increased greatly. Agricultural intensification – more production from the same acreage – remains a key solution to these challenges. One of the cornerstones of intensification is that of a higher and more productive use of inputs, such as fertilizer and water. So far, the average production has remained low and a significant yield gap still exists, mainly among small scale producers (SSPs). The limiting factors are (partly) caused by weather and climatic changes but also by a lack of agronomical knowledge, proper inputs, fertilizers and (climate smart) irrigation techniques. Thanks to the digital revolution Africa is going through, many commercial farmers already have access to a wide range of agricultural services. However, such solutions are not yet accessible to SSPs due to their costs.

A consortium led by FutureWater will collaborate with ETG agronomists and the Empowering Farmers Foundation (EFF) to work together with 60 selected maize, coffee, and tea farmers from around the country to implement Climate Smart Agricultural practices, such as crop rotation to rejuvenate soil nutrients, or mulching to reduce weeds and water erosion. By using drones to monitor the application of these sustainable crop interventions from the selected farms, the project team will also be able to use the data to assess crop productivity improvements, create crop calendars to increase harvest yields, and understand land use changes to protect encroachment into biodiverse areas. Soil samples will also be collected and analyzed to identify soil nutrition deficiencies and design appropriate soil enhancement measures that will be implemented on demo farms. The success of this pilot project will provide learnings on how it can be scaled up to reach more farmers and assess its replicability across different geographic locations.

Over the past years FutureWater and HiView managed to develop a low-cost agricultural drone technology which revolutionized the applicability of geo-information services for African farmers: ThirdEye. With the flying sensor service successful local enterprises were established that provide a low-cost drone service to small- and largescale farmers, both in Mozambique and Kenya. ThirdEye’s young agronomist-drone operators support farm decisions based on the flying sensor crop mapping that is viewed on a tablet. Integrating crop nutrition advisory and other improved agronomic practices into the ThirdEye service will bring the (extension) service up to the next level. In this project, we complement the work of flying sensors by ThirdEye with the agronomic service model of Holland Greentech including input distribution, demonstrations and field days, farmer training and coaching and soil testing.

By merging agronomic advisory services making use of low-cost flying sensors, soil testing, climate smart inputs, farmer coaching and an interactive online planning & monitoring portal, the farmer is able to improve his/her:

Planning: What crop to grow in the season based on expected weather, crop prices and market demand;
Cropping: When to sow the seed based on the type of crop and predicted weather
Management: When and where to irrigate, fertilize and apply pesticide. This can help reduce the amount of inputs used in the farm and increase yields, thus helping with profitability.
Harvest: When to harvest the crop based on market prices and predicted weather.
Market linkage: The ability to make informed decisions on where to sell their produce, which may increase their income.
Climate resilience: Option to order climate smart inputs and technologies from different suppliers. These technologies include hybrid seeds, propagation units and greenhouses, (drip) irrigation equipment, soil analysis, biological soil enhancers and biological pest control products.

This project is a collaboration between ETG Kenya, Empowering Farmers Foundation, Eco-Business II Sub-Fund Development Facility, HiView, FutureWater, Holland Greentech and ThirdEye Kenya. For more information visit: https://www.ecobusiness.fund/