De TU Delft en TAHMO (Trans-African Hydro-Meteorological Observatory) zijn samen met de Nederlandse ambassade in Ghana een project gestart om lokale weergegevens te verbeteren, Ghanese boeren te helpen er bruikbare informatie uit te halen en daarmee een klimaatslimme tuinbouwsector in Ghana te bevorderen.

FutureWater ondersteunt het project door onderzoek te doen naar optimale plantdata voor verschillende gewassen die veel in Ghana verbouwd worden, zoals tomaat, aubergines en uien. Het einddoel is om boeren en voorlichters te voorzien van locatie-specifieke informatie over optimale plantdata voor verschillende tuinbouwgewassen.

Onze methodologie is geïnspireerd op Agoungbome et al. (2024) en hun analyse van veilige zaaiperioden in West-Afrika. We zullen drie verschillende benaderingen voor het bepalen van plantdata evalueren: een op regenval gebaseerde strategie die een accumulatie van 20 mm vereist zonder daaropvolgende droge periodes, een agronomische aanzet die opeenvolgende regendagen vereist, en een modelgebaseerd veilig zaai-venster dat data identificeert die ten minste 90% van het maximale potentieel opleveren.

We zullen het FAO AquaCrop model gebruiken om de gewasgroei te simuleren onder verschillende plantdata over de afgelopen 30 jaar. Door meer dan honderd verschillende plantdata per jaar te simuleren, kunnen we de effectiviteit van zowel traditionele als weergegevensgestuurde plantstrategieën beoordelen. Bovendien kunnen we beoordelen hoe de optimale plantdata de afgelopen 30 jaar al zijn verschoven als gevolg van klimaatverandering en hoe droogte de optimale plantstrategieën beïnvloedt.

Dit zal ook de eerste keer zijn dat FutureWater gebruik zal maken van de open-source Python versie van AquaCrop, ontwikkeld door onze voormalige collega Tim Foster. Het zal spannend zijn om de nauwkeurigheid van het AquaCrop-model te zien samensmelten met de kracht van het Python-raamwerk. Waar mogelijk zullen we ook onderzoeken hoe het AquaCrop OSPy model kan worden uitgebreid met meer functies van het originele AquaCrop model, zoals vruchtbaarheidssimulatie.

Dit project zal niet alleen nieuw terrein verkennen op het gebied van zaairamen in Ghana, maar het zal ook bruikbare informatie opleveren voor Ghanese boeren en hen helpen zich beter voor te bereiden op een klimaat dat al aan het veranderen is.

Agoungbome, S. M. D., ten Veldhuis, M.-C., & van de Giesen, N. (2024). Safe Sowing Windows for Smallholder Farmers in West Africa in the Context of Climate Variability. Climate, 12(3), 44. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12030044

To ensure effective implementation, FutureWater will maintain continuous engagement with ARA-Sul, providing technical support and collecting feedback through online sessions. This collaboration will help address challenges in system integration, troubleshoot issues, and refine functionalities. A significant component of this phase is the development of a comprehensive user manual and training materials, including PowerPoint slide decks, to guide ARA-Sul staff in effectively utilizing the tool for water licensing assessments. By embedding the tool within ARA-Sul’s operations, FutureWater aims to enhance decision-making capabilities and streamline the management of water resources in the region.

A consortium of international development finance institutions led by World bank and including Asian Development Bank (ADB) have signaled their intention to support the financing of the Project. ADB is committed under Strategy 2030 operating priority 3 to support its Developing Member Countries to ensure a comprehensive approach to build climate and disaster resilience. The climate risk management approach of the ADB aims to reduce risks resulting from climate change to investment projects by identifying climate change risks to project performance in the early stages of project development, and which will support decision-making to incorporate the most appropriate adaptation measures in the design.

An initial climate risk assessment has been completed for the Rogun HPP project including assessments of natural hazards, hydrology, sedimentation, and the impact of climate change projections on project performance, however downstream resource implications have not been assessed. In this project FutureWater addresses wider system-level adaptation needs across the Amu Darya basin due to increased water use demand during the Rogun HPP reservoir filling period, climate-driven change to water supply and demand, and identification of potential supply-demand gaps. A combination of hydrological and water allocation modeling will form an evidence-base to inform recommended adaptive measures for the design and operation of Rogun HPP and for wider water-use sectors where required.

FutureWater undertakes analysis to understand projected climate change driven changes in water supply in Rogun HPP upstream areas, and water demands in downstream areas and the wider Amu Darya basin, with a focus on identifying the potential for a supply-demand gap throughout the Rogun HPP reservoir filling period to 2040. Where a risk of a supply-demand gap is identified FutureWater provides recommended measures that can increase water efficiency in the competing demand use sectors with the overall aim of meeting demand across the different scenarios and in compliance with cross-boundary resource sharing agreements.

Specifically, FutureWater addresses following topics:

  • Model projected water supply and demand in the Amu Darya river basin by utilizing a WEAP model developed for water supply, demand and allocation analysis, and accounting for climate change, Rogun HPP reservoir filling schedule, changing hydrology patterns and changes to downstream water demand from irrigation and other relevant end-use demands, where relevant.
  • Analyze the potential for water resource supply-demand gap to 2040 for a range of climate scenarios that capture potential future pathways aligned to government plans and policies and climate change, where relevant.
  • Recommend required water efficiency measures, where a risk of a supply-demand gap is identified under the the limits set by the cross-border water resource sharing agreement, so as to mitgate the risk with high-level cost estimate where capital investment is required.

 

A consortium of international development finance institutions led by World bank and including Asian Development Bank (ADB) have signaled their intention to support the financing of the project. The climate risk management approach of the ADB aims to reduce risks resulting from climate change to investment projects by identifying climate change risks to project performance in the early stages of project development and incorporating adaptation measures in the design.

For this project FutureWater undertakes work to analyze climate change risk faced by Rogun HPP and the interaction between climate change, climate-responsive HPP operation, and downstream water resource demand as a 2nd phase following initial due diligence of ADB on available project documentation. The detailed tasks entail:

  • Analyze downscaled CMIP6 General Circulation Model (GCM) to understand projected changes in precipitation and heat trends across climate change scenarios in the Rogun dam catchment area. This includes assessment of indicators for likelihood of heatwave and extreme precipitation events.
  • Undertake an estimate of the Probable Maximum Flood level in the Rogun dam catchment through event-based simulation modelling factoring in changes to projections for extreme precipitation events and changing hydrological processes due to climate change.
  • Estimate the likelihood of annual discharge change based on climate change projections to understand the likelihood of Rogun HPP project economics being negatively affected by declining capacity factor driven by climate change impacts on hydrology.
  • Conduct a first order analysis of present and future glacial lake outburst flood risk based on review of studies from reputable sources.

With the results of this analysis, ADB can update earlier climate risk studies and guide investment decisions.

 

With the highest rate of urbanization in South Asia and as one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change, Pakistan faces a range of complex challenges, including more frequent and intense flooding, declining economic productivity, and deteriorating public services. Growing dependence on groundwater, coupled with insufficient surface water recharge, is leading to severe localized groundwater depletion.

With support from the Asian Development Bank, the Government of Pakistan aims to upgrade and expand water and sanitation infrastructure in the cities of Sargodha and DG Khan, both of which face significant climate change-related challenges that impact combined drainage and sewer networks. The project has three major outputs:

  1. improving climate-resilient urban infrastructure and services,
  2. enhancing institutional capacity, operational efficiency, and gender inclusiveness of service providers, and
  3. creating greater economic empowerment opportunities for women in the WASH sector.

To assess the exposure and vulnerabilities of project components to potential climate risks, FutureWater will utilize advanced downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) ensembles, along with relevant hazard data and local information, to conduct a detailed Climate Risk Assessment (CRA). The insights gained will enable the Asian Development Bank (ADB) to implement effective adaptation measures and ensure climate-resilient development.

Het BUCRA-project (Building Unity for Climate Resilient Agriculture) richt zich op het versterken van de landbouwresistentie in Qahbunah, een landbouwgemeenschap in de Nijldelta van Egypte. Lokale boeren worden geconfronteerd met uitdagingen zoals waterschaarste, klimaatverandering en versnippering van landbouwgrond, en hebben innovatieve benaderingen nodig om hun levensonderhoud te behouden.

Centraal in BUCRA staan twee geavanceerde tools ontwikkeld door FutureWater: Croptimal en SOSIA, die geavanceerde technologie combineren met lokale kennis om traditionele landbouwpraktijken te transformeren.

Croptimal is een analyse-instrument voor klimaatgevoeligheid dat klimaatprojecties, geospatiale gegevens en landbouwinzichten benut om de geschiktheid van verschillende gewassen te beoordelen onder huidige en toekomstige klimaatscenario’s. Door gebieden en gewassen te identificeren die het meest bestand zijn tegen klimaatstressfactoren zoals hitte, zoutgehalte en waterschaarste, biedt Croptimal boeren datagestuurde aanbevelingen om hun gewaskeuze en plantstrategieën te optimaliseren. Deze tool levert zeer gedetailleerde kaarten en bruikbare adviezen, waardoor boeren hun praktijken kunnen aanpassen aan de uitdagingen van klimaatverandering en tegelijkertijd hun productiviteit kunnen verhogen.

SOSIA (Satellite-based Open-Source Irrigation Advisory) is een irrigatiebeheertool die is ontworpen om de efficiëntie van watergebruik te verbeteren. De tool maakt gebruik van open-source satellietgegevens, realtime weersinformatie en lokale bodemomstandigheden om nauwkeurige dagelijkse irrigatie-adviezen te geven. Boeren ontvangen via WhatsApp aanbevelingen over hoe lang zij hun gewassen dagelijks moeten irrigeren, waardoor de dienst zowel toegankelijk als kosteneffectief is. Deze innovatieve aanpak vermindert niet alleen het waterverbruik, maar verhoogt ook de gewasopbrengsten en energie-efficiëntie, en speelt zo in op de toenemende druk op watervoorraden in de Nijldelta.

Naast deze tools bevat BUCRA demonstratiepercelen waar klimaatslimme technieken worden getoond, zoals efficiënte irrigatie, bodembeheer en gewasrotatie. Boeren zullen ook deelnemen aan een blended leerprogramma dat veldgerichte training combineert met gebruiksvriendelijke digitale toepassingen om hun technische vaardigheden en kennis te verbeteren.

BUCRA legt sterke nadruk op het empoweren van jongeren en vrouwen in de landbouw, het versterken van marktverbindingen en het bevorderen van duurzame landgebruikspraktijken. Door Nederlandse expertise af te stemmen op lokale behoeften, streeft het project ernaar de productiviteit te verhogen, inkomens te stabiliseren en een duurzame agrarische toekomst op te bouwen in Qahbunah.

De langetermijnvisie is om bredere adoptie van deze tools en praktijken te inspireren, waardoor voedsel- en waterveiligheid in de regio wordt gegarandeerd en de uitdagingen van klimaatverandering effectief worden aangepakt.

The Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) Program is a partnership of 11 countries from Central Asia, South Asia, the Caucasus, as well as Mongolia and the People’s Republic of China and works to increase regional cooperation to help the region shift to low carbon development pathways and build resilience against climate induced hazards. ADB hosts the CAREC secretariat and helps to facilitate projects that deliver regional benefits.

In 2017, CAREC introduced agriculture and water as a new pillar under the CAREC 2030 strategy to provide a conducive and trusted platform to foster regional cooperation and integration on water security. The water pillar was established in 2020 and its scope was devised in 2022. Since then, a number of activities and consultations with CAREC countries have been undertaken including provision of a long list of potential regional projects that could be financed by ADB.

In this project prefeasibility studies will be conducted for three selected priority projects:

  1. Climate change adaptation through improving irrigation efficiency in the Aral Sea Basin
  2. Climate Resiliency of Bakhri Tojik reservoir for improved irrigation and energy supply
  3. Joint Automated Water Metering System in the Aral Sea Basin

The prefeasibility studies entail:

  • Technical, financial, economic, poverty and social analysis.
  • Environment, social, and indigenous people’s safeguards assessments.
  • Climate change assessments.
  • Financial management and procurement capacity assessments; and
  • Institutional set-up and project implementation arrangements.

For these prefeasibility studies FutureWater conducts the climate risk assessment.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) is considering supporting the (re)construction of four wastewater treatment plants in Stepnogorsk, Satpaev, Zhezkazgan, and Balkhash. Detailed engineering designs are being prepared by designers recruited by Vodokanals. Climate change impacts may exacerbate environmental pollution and other adverse effects of aging infrastructure on service delivery. FutureWater conducted a Climate Risk Assessment (CRA) to ensure that climate impacts are fully considered in the detailed design and construction phases.

The CRA identified the main vulnerability components for the four proposed wastewater treatment plants as: (i) extreme precipitation leading to stormwater runoff, (ii) low flows causing water quality problems, (iii) flooding of infrastructure (both fluvial and pluvial), (iv) power supply outages, and (v) heat stress. FutureWater’s risk assessment, which considered the combined effects of hazard, vulnerability, and exposure, concluded that all five major identified risks require attention. Since the draft designs already account for the current extreme climate conditions, and due to relatively modest projected climate changes (temperature, precipitation, wind), the need for additional adaptation measures will be relatively modest.

FutureWater’s assessment contributed to ensuring that the four wastewater treatment plants will be climate-resilient, thereby securing the investment.

Golovnaya hydropower plant is located 80 kilometers south of Dushanbe and has an installed generation capacity of 240 MW, making it the fourth largest hydropower plant in Tajikistan, after Nurek (3,000 MW), Sangtuda 1 (670 MW), and Baipaza (600 MW). Construction began in 1956, with the first unit commissioned in 1962. Since then, except for one unit, the plant has not undergone significant modernization or improvements to maintain its original performance in terms of efficiency, reliability, safety, or to reduce operation and maintenance costs. Consequently, most of the main electro-mechanical and hydro-mechanical equipment is now in poor condition.

The current project, for which FutureWater conducted a climate risk assessment (CRA), aims to include the rehabilitation of generation Unit 4 of the hydropower plant, which was not part of the ongoing efforts. Unit 4 is expected to add approximately 49 MW to the overall plant capacity. The CRA report evaluated the climate risk and adaptation prospects of the additional project and provides recommendations to enhance its adaptability and climate resilience, further securing this investment.

FutureWater supported this project by conducting a comprehensive review of climate and climate change research, studies, reports, and data related to the Golovnaya hydropower plant. Key findings include: (i) the project should be analyzed within the context of the entire Vakhsh River basin and system; (ii) the operations of upstream reservoirs and hydropower facilities will have a greater impact on Golovnaya than climate change itself; (iii) climate change will affect upstream facilities and thereby indirectly impact Golovnaya. The overall conclusion was that for the specific project (rehabilitating hydropower turbines), the climate risk is relatively low.

FutureWater’s impact was contributing to ensuring that the Golovnaya rehabilitation project will be climate-resilient, thereby securing the investment.

The Lower Chao Phraya region of Thailand is facing increasingly frequent and severe flooding events, which pose significant threats to the livelihoods, safety, and economic stability of local communities. These floods have caused extensive property damage, crop loss, and displacement, thereby hindering overall development in the region. Contributing to these climate-induced flood vulnerabilities are the aging irrigation canal systems, which are inadequate for managing more intense floods, thus exacerbating water-related risks and long-term economic losses. This inefficiency constrains agricultural productivity, perpetuates poverty, and impedes sustainable development.

In response to these challenges, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) is advancing the Enhancing Climate Resilience and Adaptation of the Lower Eastern Chao Phraya Water System Project. The project aims to modernize the aging irrigation infrastructure—comprising canals, regulation gates, and pumping stations—by repurposing them into climate-resilient flood mitigation systems. This initiative seeks to improve water resource management, enhance climate adaptation, mitigate environmental degradation, and mobilize resources for sustainable development.

FutureWater has supported this project by conducting a comprehensive review of significant climate and climate change research, studies, reports, data, and information related to floods and droughts in Thailand from both governmental and non-governmental entities. This included analyzing the availability, quality, and accessibility of climate-related data collected across various regions in Thailand, and identifying data gaps. Additionally, FutureWater evaluated the methodologies, tools, and technologies used for climate data collection, analysis, and modeling to assess their reliability and effectiveness.

FutureWater’s contributions included: (i) identifying strengths and weaknesses in Thailand’s national and international climate commitments, (ii) highlighting the importance of distinguishing between pluvial and fluvial flooding, and (iii) assessing current and projected return periods for temperature, rainfall, and sea level rise. Recommendations were provided regarding the direction in which a comprehensive Climate Risk Assessment should be developed during the design phase of the project.