A consortium of international development finance institutions led by World bank and including Asian Development Bank (ADB) have signaled their intention to support the financing of the Project. ADB is committed under Strategy 2030 operating priority 3 to support its Developing Member Countries to ensure a comprehensive approach to build climate and disaster resilience. The climate risk management approach of the ADB aims to reduce risks resulting from climate change to investment projects by identifying climate change risks to project performance in the early stages of project development, and which will support decision-making to incorporate the most appropriate adaptation measures in the design.

An initial climate risk assessment has been completed for the Rogun HPP project including assessments of natural hazards, hydrology, sedimentation, and the impact of climate change projections on project performance, however downstream resource implications have not been assessed. In this project FutureWater addresses wider system-level adaptation needs across the Amu Darya basin due to increased water use demand during the Rogun HPP reservoir filling period, climate-driven change to water supply and demand, and identification of potential supply-demand gaps. A combination of hydrological and water allocation modeling will form an evidence-base to inform recommended adaptive measures for the design and operation of Rogun HPP and for wider water-use sectors where required.

FutureWater undertakes analysis to understand projected climate change driven changes in water supply in Rogun HPP upstream areas, and water demands in downstream areas and the wider Amu Darya basin, with a focus on identifying the potential for a supply-demand gap throughout the Rogun HPP reservoir filling period to 2040. Where a risk of a supply-demand gap is identified FutureWater provides recommended measures that can increase water efficiency in the competing demand use sectors with the overall aim of meeting demand across the different scenarios and in compliance with cross-boundary resource sharing agreements.

Specifically, FutureWater addresses following topics:

  • Model projected water supply and demand in the Amu Darya river basin by utilizing a WEAP model developed for water supply, demand and allocation analysis, and accounting for climate change, Rogun HPP reservoir filling schedule, changing hydrology patterns and changes to downstream water demand from irrigation and other relevant end-use demands, where relevant.
  • Analyze the potential for water resource supply-demand gap to 2040 for a range of climate scenarios that capture potential future pathways aligned to government plans and policies and climate change, where relevant.
  • Recommend required water efficiency measures, where a risk of a supply-demand gap is identified under the the limits set by the cross-border water resource sharing agreement, so as to mitgate the risk with high-level cost estimate where capital investment is required.

 

To this end, FutureWater, in collaboration with unique land use GmbH and the Central Himalayan Rural Action Group, is conducting a training program on Springshed Management in four states, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh India. The program aims to equip the local stakeholders with practical tools and best practices for managing springshed and springs in the region. The key beneficiaries of these trainings are the forest departments of these four states under the Ministry of Environment, Forestry and Climate Change (MoEF&CC). Funded by GIZ India, these trainings will covers key topics, including:

  • Concepts of springs and springshed management protocols and best practices
  • Hydro-geological data collection during a field expedition
  • Springshed mapping
  • Connecting forest ecosystem services to water resources

For the first round of training the consortium will start training with the Uttarakhand Forest Department (UKFD) in Dehradun, India. This initiative aims to strengthen sustainable water management practices and safeguard these critical water sources for future generations.

The Rogun HPP is a project that will have a large reservoir capable of providing seasonal regulation. It will supply firm energy during the winter months when demand for electricity is the highest in Tajikistan and will allow for exports of clean electricity to the Central Asia (CA) region and beyond. The Project could play the role of a balancing plant for Tajikistan and the broader Central Asia region to help integrate significant new solar PV and wind generation capacity into the network.

The Rogun HPP was initially designed in the 1970s as part of the development of the Vakhsh River cascade for integrated economic development in the Central Asian republics of the Soviet Union. Construction of Rogun HPP began in 1982 and was then interrupted by political changes resulting from the independence of Tajikistan and the other Central Asia countries. The World Bank in 2011 provided funding to the Government of Tajikistan to conduct a Technical and Economic Assessment Study and an Environmental and Social Impact Assessment. The Government of Tajikistan proceeded with construction without development partners’ involvement. In 2023 a technical assistance grant was approved by World Bank to improve the financial and commercial frameworks of the Rogun HPP Project and to enhance its technical, environmental and social sustainability.

ADB is committed under Strategy 2030 operating priority 3 to support its Developing Member Countries to ensure a comprehensive approach to build climate and disaster resilience. The climate risk management approach of the ADB aims to reduce risks resulting from climate change to investment projects by identifying climate change risks to project performance in the early stages of project development and incorporating adaptation measures in the design.

FutureWater will undertake a climate risk and vulnerability assessment for the Rogun HPP project. Technical studies assessing Rogun HPP’s exposure to natural hazards, hydrology, sedimentation, and
the impact of climate change projections have been completed. These findings are incorporated into the detailed technical design of the project. FutureWater will review all existing studies and any
related studies from reputable sources and consolidate the findings into a climate risk and vulnerability assessment (CRVA) for the project. FutureWater will ensure the methodological approach and technical rigor of the existing evidence base is sufficient, flagging potential insufficiencies which may have a material impact on the conclusions of the assessments. Related tasks to support due diligence will also include a Paris Alignment Assessment in accordance with ADB guidelines, a climate financing accounting estimate, a lifecycle greenhouse gas emission estimate, and Climate Change Assessment summarizing the CRVA findings.

The aim is to develop a business case for a Watershed Investment Program for Addis Ababa. It includes stakeholder and governance analysis, scientific modeling, return on investment (ROI) analysis, and an implementation plan. Hydrological models are employed to assess the potential of Nature-based Solutions to mitigate the negative trends in the watershed, and improve water supply reliability, water quality, sedimentation and agricultural productivity. The study should raise awareness for all key stakeholders and potential investors. The study is performed under the Nature for Water Facility launched by The Nature Conservancy.

As part of the FAO’s Asia-Pacific Water Scarcity Programme (WSP), FutureWater conducts a scoping study to identify opportunities to improve sustainable water resources management in the country. Following this scoping assessment, FutureWater develops bankable investment concept notes for activities to strengthen national capacities to implement policy actions that prepare Mongolia for a water scarce future. As part of the project, a high level stakeholder consultation forum with key government stakeholders and development partners is organized to validate the findings of the assessment and prioritize the investment concepts.

Mongolia has a strong commitment to IWRM, as defined in the 2012 Water Law, and good progress has been made. This includes the establishment of river basin organizations (RBOs) to manage the 29 river basins in the country. Currently, there are 21 operational RBOs. However, these bodies lack the experience needed for implementation of their tasks. Training and professional development of employees of the water basin authorities are of the utmost importance, to enable them to implement the assigned tasks and be better positioned for advancing implementation of Target 6.5 of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

 

Tajikistan has initiated the Water Sector Reform Program, aiming to enhance water resource planning and allocation across different river basin zones. However, the development of a comprehensive integrated water resources management plan is hindered by a lack of data on snow and glacier melt. The impact of climate change on the cryosphere, including changes in glacier ice storage, snow dynamics, and evaporation rates, further compounds the issue by affecting high mountain water supply and altering runoff composition and overall water availability.

To address this challenge, the “Integrated Rural Development Project” (IRDP), implemented by GIZ as part of the bilateral development project “Towards Rural Inclusive Growth and Economic Resilience (TRIGGER),” focuses on enhancing the value of agricultural production in Tajikistan. As part of the project, the Water Output (Output 1.5) provides technical support to the Ministry of Energy and Water Resources (MEWR) in the Zarafshon River Basin and at the national level. This support includes technical advisory services, capacity building, training measures, and improving access to irrigation water for small-scale farmers. Local relevant stakeholders foreseen as project beneficiaries are MEWR, Zarafshon River Basin (Zarafshon RBO), Center of Glacier Research (CGR), the Institute of Water Problems (IWP) and the Agency for Hydrometeorology, Tajikistan.

The project has three core components: data collection, modeling, and capacity building, as outlined below. Data collection will include both field monitoring campaigns using UAVs and retrieving historical records which could either be past in-situ observations, remotely sensed or modelled data. This comprehensive dataset will be used to set up, calibrate and validate Spatial Processes in Hydrology (SPHY) and WEAP models. The project will use the model-chain to provide the probabilistic flow forecast (likelihood to be in dry, medium, or wet conditions) using the seasonal meteorological forecast data. The SPHY-WEAP model-chain will then be deployed in the Zarafshon RBO-based servers. The results of the model-chain will be used to develop a comprehensive policy guidance note, proposing strategies and a way forward for developing a robust climate-resilient integrated water resources management plan that will ensure both water availability and accessibility across the river basin. Capacity building is a critical component of the project to ensure its sustainability and upscaling. Therefore, six capacity-building trainings (online and in-country) targeting different technical areas of the project will be organized throughout the project.

By undertaking these efforts, we aim to contribute to the successful implementation of Integrated Water Resources Management in Zarafshon and Tajikistan.

The inital Climate Risk Assessment (CRA) by FutureWater in 2021 for the Asian Development Bank (ADB) identified the need for a detailed CRA for the DKSHEP to understand the risk posed by the changing climate on hydropower and the environment. Therefore, the objective of this Climate Risk and Adaptation Assessment (CRA) is to assess the vulnerability of the project components to future climate change and recommend adaptation options for climate-proofing the design. This CRA covers both type 2 adaptation, related to system change and resilience building, as well as type 1 adaptation related to climate-proofing. FutureWater will support ADB to ensure that the project will adequately address climate change mitigation and adaptation in accordance with ADB’s requirements.

FutureWater will make use of state-of-the-art downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) ensembles, and other relevant hazards and local information to develop this CRA. Insights from the CRA will be used to devise adaptation strategies. FutureWater will also ensure climate resilience measures are incorporated into the detailed design and environmental management planning before finalizing the climate change risk assessment. Together with the client’s engineering and safeguards team (Nepal Electricity Authority), FutureWater will ensure that the detailed design and environmental management plans incorporate all other recommended climate resilience measures and that their implementation is sufficiently detailed including bioengineering techniques, nature-based solutions, and an early warning system. FutureWater will collate the information and work closely with the national geological and GLOF consultants to review all available options for (i) sediment management plan, (ii) upstream catchment management plan, and (iii) emergency preparedness and response plan. FutureWater will provide several capacity-building sessions to the project team on the findings of the initial CRA, and the potential options for climate resilience measures to incorporate in the project design and operation to address the risks identified. Moreover, this project will develop a GHG account and prepare SARD climate change screening and Paris Agreement alignment assessment.

In de afgelopen decennia is efficiënt waterbeheer een belangrijk onderdeel geweest van het waterbeleid van de EU. Dit onderwerp krijgt hernieuwde aandacht in de herziene EU-aanpassingsstrategie van 2021, waarin de noodzaak van een kennisgestuurde benadering van waterbesparende technologieën en instrumenten, zoals efficiënte toewijzing van watervoorraden, wordt benadrukt. Het speciale IPCC-rapport over oceanen en de cryosfeer in een veranderend klimaat (2019) wijst op de combinatie van waterbeheer en klimaatrisico’s als potentiële oorzaken van spanningen over schaarse watervoorraden binnen en over landsgrenzen heen, met name bij concurrerende vraag tussen waterkracht en irrigatie in grensoverschrijdende gletsjer- en sneeuwgevoede stroomgebieden in Centraal-Azië.

De innovatieve aanpak van WE-ACT bestaat uit twee complementaire innovatieacties: de eerste is de ontwikkeling van een gegevensketen voor een betrouwbaar waterinformatiesysteem, dat op zijn beurt de tweede mogelijk maakt, namelijk het ontwerp en de uitrol van een beslissingsondersteunend systeem (DSS) voor de toewijzing van watervoorraden. De gegevensketen voor het betrouwbare waterinformatiesysteem bestaat uit realtime in-situ hydrometeorologische en glaciologische monitoringtechnologie, modellering van het watersysteem (inclusief modellering van wateraanbod en -vraag en watervoetafdrukanalyses) en gletsjermassabalans, datawarehousetechnologie en machine learning.

De uitrol van het DSS voor klimaatrisicogestuurde toewijzing van watervoorraden bestaat uit analyses van belanghebbenden en instellingen, methoden voor waardebepaling van water, de opzet van het waterinformatiesysteem om een gebruiksvriendelijke interface mogelijk te maken, ontwikkeling van gebruiksscenario’s voor watertoewijzing en feedback over watergebruik via nationale beleidsdialogen.

Het werk van FutureWater binnen de WE-ACT-studie zal zich richten op het inschatten van de waterbehoefte en watervoetafdrukken van de verschillende gebruikers en activiteiten binnen het Syr Darya-stroomgebied. Daarom zullen de effecten van watertoewijzing op watervoetafdrukken, onvervulde watervraag en schendingen van milieustromen worden geëvalueerd met behulp van een reeks hydrologische modellen, zoals SPHY en Water Allocation-modellen (WEAP). Dit zal worden gedaan voor zowel de huidige situatie als toekomstige scenario’s.

Voor meer informatie kunt u de WE-ACT projectwebsite bezoeken.

Eswatini’s development is at risk by natural drought hazards. Persistent drought is exacerbating the country’s existing challenges of food security and the ability to attain sustainable development. Therefore, FutureWater, Hydrologic, and Emanti Management joined forces to bring together technologies and complementary expertise to implement the GLOW service which includes: short-term and seasonal forecasts of water availability and demand, an alerting service when forecasted water demand is higher than water availability, and water distribution advisories to reduce impact and maximise water security for all water users.

The GLOW service will be piloted in the Maputo River and Mbuluzi River Basins where three-quarters of the population of Eswatini lives, which includes the Hawane dam that supplies water to Mbabane (Capital City of Eswatini) and which is the major water supply source for Maputo, a Delta city (1 million inhabitants) which suffers from water shortages. The main beneficiaries of this project are the Joint River Basin Authority (JBRAS-PB) and the 5 River Basin authorities, AraSul (Mozambique) and the Department of Water and Sanitation (South Africa).

The innovation of GLOW is bringing together proven and award-winning technologies of advanced earth observation, open data, high-performance computing, data-driven modelling, data science, machine learning, operations research, and stakeholder interaction. These technologies require minimum ground truth information, which makes them very scalable and applicable in poorly monitored environments throughout the world. The coherent combination of the technologies into one decision support service ensures the optimum division of water, basically distributing every drop of water to meet the demands of all interests present in large river catchments.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) identified the need for a detailed Climate Risk and Adaptation (CRA) assessment for the DKSHEP to understand the risk posed by the changing climate on hydropower and the environment. Therefore, the objective of this Climate Risk and Adaptation Assessment (CRA) is to assess the vulnerability of the project components to future climate change and recommend adaptation options for climate-proofing of the design. Therefore, this CRA covers both type 2 adaptation, related to system change and resilience building, as well as type 1 adaptation related to climate-proofing This CRA assesses historic trends in relevant climate-related variables and analyses climate projections for the DKSHEP. Based on these projections, an assessment of the current and future climate risks and vulnerabilities relating to the proposed project activities will be outlined. Finally, recommendations will be presented for climate adaptation measures.